Precious Metals Update Central banks’ gold demand starts the year on a positive note The latest data show that central banks’ holdings of gold increased in January. However, we think that a strong US dollar will be a major headwind for gold demand from the official sector this year. 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Jan./Feb.) China’s activity and investment data for the first two months of the year point to robust metals demand. However, we are wary that this may represent the high point of 2017, given signs of a steadily... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Soaring copper stocks reflect waning investor optimism The big story this month is an unexpected surge in LME copper stocks, which appears to be related to investors closing long positions in the futures market. At the same time, China’s exchange stocks... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Fed tightening to prove too strong a headwind for gold prices After rising for most of February, gold prices have slumped in recent days, falling below the $1,200 per ounce mark, on expectations that the Fed will press ahead with a rate hike next week. We expect... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Has the stability in oil prices come to an end? A return to more normal levels of volatility in oil prices seems likely over the next few months as investors question the effectiveness of OPEC’s production cuts. However, we still expect prices to... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports holding up well China’s commodity import volumes remained strong in February, despite generally higher prices. However, we are reluctant to read too much into the data given the usual seasonal distortions. 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs are not all good news for commodities Both the official and unofficial February manufacturing PMIs for China surprised on the upside. However, much of the growth was driven by higher export orders, which we think are unlikely to be... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Surging supply to keep a lid on LNG prices The price of spot LNG in Asia has been in freefall in recent weeks as temporary supply outages have been resolved and demand has cooled. We expect prices to fall further given ongoing expansions to... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investors remain positive, for now Optimism about demand, fuelled by a pick-up in China’s activity data and the prospect of fiscal stimulus in the US, continues to buoy investor sentiment in the industrial metals markets. However... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update A weak start to the year for China’s metals imports China’s metals imports were broadly weak in January. This is in line with the most recent activity data which show that the Chinese economy, while still holding up well, may have lost some momentum in... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks continue to build in China China’s exchange stocks have soared since the start of the year on a combination of optimism about demand and concerns about supply. 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver mine supply could bounce back Oversupply has been plaguing the silver market for the past ten years. However, the latest data show that production cuts across the industrial and precious metal industries are starting to take their... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Why are we so negative on the outlook for iron ore prices? High prices are spurring iron ore production at a time when we think demand will start to slow. As such, the recent rally in prices appears unsustainable. 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors still in love with commodities The prices of most commodities have risen since the start of the year, boosted by optimism about demand and, in some cases, disrupted supply. A period of weakness in the US dollar has helped, but the... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will a slowdown in efficiency gains curtail US shale oil output? Oil price increases following production cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC countries stand to be partially tempered by higher US shale oil output. Improved efficiency in the industry means that oil producers... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Uncertain ore supply to support nickel prices Nickel ore supply is likely to fall this year which underpins our forecast of a rise in refined nickel prices. But the scale of any rally will be constrained by high prevailing stocks. 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
