Industrial Metals Update Stocks fall, but cannot explain the surge in prices Total exchange stocks of nearly all the metals edged lower over the last month, which will have been a factor supporting prices. That said, the recent stock drawdowns have been relatively small. What... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Iran’s oil exports unlikely to fall any time soon President Trump’s refusal to waive sanctions on Iran’s oil industry has given a boost to oil prices, but it is not a given that Congress will reinstate sanctions and support from international... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybeans steal the show The US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s latest set of estimates painted a more mixed picture this month. While the report was perceived as bearish for wheat and cotton, soybeans and corn rallied on... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A bumper month for China’s commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes surged in September. However, this could reflect a final push at the local level to boost activity ahead of the Party Congress this month. As such, import volumes... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update LNG rally may run out of steam Temporary supply disruptions and strong demand in Asia have boosted LNG prices to an almost 9-month high. However, the rally may soon lose momentum as winter demand looks set to peak at a time of... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update India’s gold demand to remain soft The Indian government’s decision to reverse an order that brought the gem & jewellery sector under anti-money laundering legislation is certainly good news for the gold industry. That said, demand is... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will US oil exports really help rebalance the market? The collapse in US net oil imports over the last few weeks has helped to draw down crude inventories in the country. This has raised hopes that market rebalancing is accelerating and has been one... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Does the rally in alumina prices have legs? The jump in alumina prices is probably premised largely on the prospect of winter capacity closures in China. But given that aluminium production could also fall, the market may not be as tight as it... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Should the oil market worry about sanctions on Iran? If President Trump refuses to waive the sanctions on Iran’s oil exports then we would expect oil prices to rise. However, it is not clear that Congress would vote to re-impose sanctions on the country... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No clear signal from China’s PMIs China’s official and unofficial PMIs diverged in September, but both suggested that smaller, private sector manufacturers are struggling. The authorities appear aware of the sector’s woes as the cut... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Platinum-to-palladium spread turns negative, for now Palladium was in the spotlight yesterday as its price traded at a premium to platinum for the first time in sixteen years. However, unlike platinum, investors’ net-long position in palladium looks... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil demand rises as global economy strengthens Global oil demand was given a boost in the second quarter of this year largely due to a stronger global economy. The latest data point to a bright outlook for oil demand over the next year as the... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What can the Baltic Dry Index tell us? The recovery in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) since early 2016 corroborates data showing a pick-up in global growth and the strength of commodity prices, notably the metals. However, we think that the... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Metal Output Monitor China increased its output of most refined metals in the first eight months of the year. The main exceptions were zinc and nickel. 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will new Chinese crude contracts be a game-changer? A new, yuan-denominated crude futures contract should have no impact on oil prices. The development of more futures contracts makes sense given China’s high consumption of most major commodities and... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Should we expect the rise in coal prices to continue? We are revising our coal price forecast up to take account of the recent rise in prices. However, increasing supply, slowing Chinese demand and more efficient energy alternatives are all likely to... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
