Commodities Update North Korea sanctions should not have much market impact Some commentators are justifying the recent surge in a number of industrial commodity prices on the prospect of lower available supply as a result of the latest sanctions on North Korea. However, we... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent backwardation should help to reduce oil stocks The recent backwardation in the Brent futures curve will encourage traders to continue to draw down stocks over the next few months, which should support spot prices. 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities weather the storm Commodity prices held their own in the last month amid the escalation in geopolitical tensions involving the US and North Korea. The depreciation of the US dollar helped to support prices, along with... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore’s last hurrah? The price of iron ore has staged an impressive rally since late June, fuelled by a combination of strong growth in China’s steel output and speculative activity. However, with steel demand and... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Jul.) China’s July activity and investment data showed a marked downturn and reversed most of the gains recorded towards the end of the second quarter. We had always expected policy tightening to translate... 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What does the North Korean crisis mean for gold prices? The price of gold was a key beneficiary of the recent increase in tensions between the US and North Korea. While we think that the chances of a full-scale war are quite slim, there remains huge... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Markets appear surprised by bearish WASDE data The prices of wheat and soybeans plunged after the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised up its estimates of global production. What’s more, it is projecting that global inventories of wheat and... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc rally to fade towards year-end After falling at the start of the year, robust demand and constrained supply have pushed the price of zinc higher in recent months. The strength in prices is likely to persist over the next couple of... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Falling stocks to support oil prices, even if the dollar rises again A weaker US dollar has given some support to oil prices over the last month. However, the inverse relationship is likely to break down again over the next year as rising US interest rates support the... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Poor start to H2 2017 for China’s commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes were generally weak in July. High stocks of many commodities and growing domestic production dampened demand for imports. What’s more, the prospect of cooling domestic... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update How strong is demand for coal, really? The lack of timely coal consumption data on a monthly basis – at least at a global level – makes it difficult to determine changes in coal demand in the short term. Our new Capital Economics World... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q2 & H1 2017 World Gold Council Demand Trends Global gold demand fell to the lowest level since 2009 in the first half of 2017. Higher prices, fading geopolitical risks and soft jewellery fabrication were the main factors behind the weakness in... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs paint a mixed picture While the unofficial PMI data point to an acceleration in economic growth in July, we don’t think that the upturn will be sustained, given the increasing headwinds from policy tightening. This view... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks of most metals edge lower Exchange stocks of most metals fell over the last month. With the exception of copper and tin, inventories are now substantially lower than at the start of the year, pointing to tightening markets... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Strong export demand to support US natural gas prices A surge in demand for US natural gas from Mexico and Canada as well as bourgeoning shipments of LNG to Europe and Asia should give a boost to natural gas prices over the next year. 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China and India’s gold imports (Jun.) The latest trade data for India and China show that gold imports rose in June. Nonetheless, we think that demand will lose momentum in the second half of the year as slower growth in China and a new... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
