Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain robust China’s commodity import volumes jumped in January, despite a further fall in the renminbi vis-à-vis the US dollar. However, the most recent activity data show that the Chinese economy, while still... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will a stronger dollar prevent oil prices from rising further? Strong growth in demand for oil and a reduction in stocks should push prices higher over the rest of this year. However, rising US interest rates and a stronger dollar are likely to act as headwinds... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update 2016 World Gold Council Demand Trends Global gold demand rose 2% y/y in 2016 to reach a three-year high of 4,309 tonnes. This increase was predominantly the result of strong safe-haven demand in the first half of the year. In 2017, we... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update US foreign policy is a major upside risk for oil prices Donald Trump’s foreign policy, especially regarding the Middle East, is likely to have a bigger impact on oil prices in the near term than changes to domestic energy policies. 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China and India’s gold demand to remain subdued in 2017 Demand for gold in the two main consumers – China and India – plummeted in 2016 on a combination of higher prices, increased regulation in India and lower appetite for gold jewellery in China. Looking... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks were on the move in January There have been some large moves in stocks, notably in Shanghai, over the last month. Stockbuilding was evident in China which may have been a symptom of weak demand, but we think it is more likely to... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Optimism prevails, for now For the most part, commodity prices have started the year strongly, buoyed by persistent optimism about demand and some weakness in the US dollar. However, we are concerned that, in some cases, prices... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Global Steel Production (Dec. & 2016) After a weak start to the year, global steel production recovered and was growing briskly at 5.5% y/y in December, encouraged by high prevailing prices. In our view, the steel market is more than... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (Nov./Dec.) China’s refinery output continued to grow in December, encouraged by higher prices and signs of a more general revival in the economy. However, we think optimism about demand will fade over the course... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s metals imports reflect mine supply trends The pattern of China’s trade in industrial metals and ores in 2016 was determined in part by trends in global mine supply. Lower mine output of some ores was a factor curbing imports, but higher US... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Dec.) China’s activity data for December show the economy finishing the year on a strong note. That said, there were signs of somewhat slower growth in output last month and the downturn in state-led... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Higher Chinese oil demand to help rebalance the market Despite a slowdown in economic growth in China from its high at the end of 2016, we expect the country’s oil demand to rise this year. 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How sustainable is the recovery in the gold price? After slumping in the days following Trump’s win, the price of gold has since recovered some ground and is now trading at around $1,200 per ounce. However, we think that risks are now skewed to the... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports hit new records in 2016 China’s commodity import volumes remained high in December, corroborating data showing a pick-up in activity in the final months of 2016. However, the strength of imports cannot be attributed solely... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Central banks’ gold demand could remain subdued in 2017 The latest data show that central banks’ holdings of gold were broadly unchanged in November. However, year-to-date purchases remain substantially lower than in 2015 and this weakness could persist... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Key commodity calls for 2017 Commodity prices face a number of headwinds moving into next year, including rising US interest rates, further US dollar strength and less stimulus spending by the Chinese authorities. However, we... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
