Capital Daily We don’t think even-higher oil prices will push yields up Although the two have often moved in tandem, we think oil prices could rise further without pushing US inflation compensation, and therefore Treasury yields, any higher. 6th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the fleeting bounce in the US stock market Today’s sizeable pull-back in the US stock market after a much brighter start to the month fits with our view that it is not yet out of the woods. We don’t expect it continue to struggle for the... 5th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Retreat in bond yields may be a little premature Despite the recent retreat in expectations for interest rates – which seems to be a key driver on the big bounce in equities this week so far – we still expect most major central banks to maintain... 4th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Policy U-turns unlikely to take the pressure off the pound Even though recent developments in the UK may have provided some reassurance to investors and helped sterling to recover, we think that the deteriorating global economic outlook will ensure that the... 3rd October 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily How Brazil’s financial markets could perform under Lula Investors have so far taken the prospect of Lula winning Brazil’s presidential election in their stride, but we doubt the country’s markets will do as well as they did last time he was in power. 30th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the “Bailey put” The Bank of England’s extraordinary intervention in the Gilt market yesterday highlights the increasingly difficult trade-offs facing central banks, and their problematic implications for financial... 29th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily US equities don’t seem to be factoring in a gloomier economy The plunge in the stock market in the US that has accompanied the recent ratcheting up of rate expectations there has been partly blamed on concerns that more aggressive Fed tightening is undermining... 28th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt a different policy mix will revive sterling soon Although a shift in the UK’s fiscal and monetary policy mix could conceivably boost sterling in due course, we suspect that the currency won’t continue to recover in the near term from its record low... 27th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Italy’s new leadership may still put more pressure on spreads Italy’s new governing coalition doesn’t seem to have troubled investors for now, but we suspect worries about debt sustainability will still result in long dated Italian government bonds struggling... 26th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The UK’s fiscal gamble will keep Gilt yields high We think 10-year gilt yields will remain high following Friday’s fiscal statement from the UK Government. 23rd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Japan’s policymakers have bought the yen some time We think FX intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF), if sustained, will be enough to prevent much further depreciation in the yen against the dollar until downward pressure from widening... 22nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Bond market already firmly braced for a hawkish FOMC The extent of the monetary tightening now discounted in the US ahead of today’s decision by the FOMC suggests to us that long-term Treasury yields are likely to fall back in due course. 21st September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Government bond yields and the outlook for the US dollar We think the US dollar will rally further against most major currencies even if, as we expect, it doesn’t receive much more support from interest rate differentials. 20th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Renminbi may stabilise despite China’s faltering economy Although we think China’s economic outlook is bleak, we don’t expect further big falls in the renminbi against the greenback. 16th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Peak inflation and the prospects for equities Although we think this week’s disappointing CPI report in the US is just a bump on the road towards much lower inflation, and that today’s rather disappointing news on retail sales and industrial... 15th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We continue to think sterling will fall along with Gilt yields Although we doubt the latest CPI data out of the UK will prevent the BoE from tightening policy over the next few quarters, we continue to expect Gilt yields to fall back and sterling to grind lower... 14th September 2022 · 6 mins read
