Capital Daily Despite price pressures, we still expect Treasury yields to fall Despite the hot US inflation data released earlier today, we still think long-term Treasury yields will eventually fall as disinflationary pressures grow. 13th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation compensation may not rise, even if oil prices do US inflation compensation has declined over recent weeks as oil prices have fallen back. But this relationship isn’t set in stone and, even if oil prices rise again, inflation compensation may not. 12th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily How the stock-bond correlation may be shifting We suspect the positive correlation between the prices of US equities and Treasuries may fade over the next year or so, and perhaps turn somewhat negative. 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What the hawkish ECB means for markets A hawkish ECB probably means there’s little respite in sight for euro-zone bonds, but we doubt it will boost the euro. 8th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We think Gilts will rally over the rest of this year We think 10-year Gilts will recover some ground over the rest of this year as investors pare back expectations for tightening. 7th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Aussie dollar may fall further despite RBA hikes Even though we expect the RBA to continue to hike rates aggressively, we don’t think that will stop the Australian dollar from falling further against the US dollar. 6th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Ongoing energy supply concerns could weigh on the euro further The indefinite closure of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline strengthens the “stagflationary” headwinds facing euro-zone economies and reinforces our view that the euro is likely to fall further against the... 5th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Normalising payrolls may not be enough to push equities up With pressure on the Fed easing, we think long-term Treasury yields will fall slightly over the remainder of this year, although we don’t think that will stop the S&P 500 from declining. 2nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We expect Asian currencies to remain under pressure We think that continued sluggish growth in China and globally means that the renminbi, and other Asian currencies, will fall a bit further this year. 1st September 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Prospect of more ECB hikes may not push up yields or the euro Even if investors continue to raise their near-term expectations for the ECB deposit rate, we doubt this will push up long-dated euro-zone yields or help the euro recover against the US dollar. 31st August 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily S&P 500 may fall again even if Treasury yields stabilise We suspect that the broad patterns seen in US markets since Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech , i.e. little change in long-dated Treasury yields and lower equities, will persist over the... 30th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Hawkish Fed may still be a headwind for bonds and stocks With the Fed seemingly still in a hawkish mood, we don’t expect a big rally in Treasuries or equities until next year. 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Rebound in EZ bonds unlikely to last, especially in the periphery While we doubt that today’s drop in euro-zone government bond yields will be sustained, we don’t expect “core” yields to increase much from here. In contrast, we still forecast “peripheral” yields to... 25th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Defensive stock market sectors may continue to outperform Defensive sectors of the S&P 500 have outperformed during its recent slump, a trend which we generally expect to continue. While the S&P 500 has opened broadly flat today, the index has fallen by ~4%... 24th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EUR/USD parity may become par for the course With the key EUR/USD rate again trading below the symbolic parity level, we think it looks increasingly probable that the euro-zone’s worsening economic woes will lead to a prolonged period of euro... 23rd August 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt Chinese equities have yet passed their worst A raft of recently announced policy support has not put an end to the struggles of China’s stock market. We think that it will continue to slide, given that the economy faces multiple challenges... 22nd August 2022 · 6 mins read
