Capital Daily Troubles are probably not over for Brazil’s markets The post-election honeymoon period for Brazil’s financial markets has proven short-lived, and we suspect that the country’s equities, bonds, and currency will remain under pressure in coming months. 21st November 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What next for BTPs? It might seem surprising that the spread between the yields of 10-year government bonds in debt-laden Italy and Germany has plummeted by more than 50bp over the past month or so, to <190bp, given the... 18th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Gloomy UK fiscal outlook points to lower yields & weaker sterling The market reaction to today’s UK fiscal announcement has proven rather less eventful than the unfortunate “mini-budget” back in September. But while we think that the worst is over for the UK... 17th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think CEE currencies have further to fall than most We think that the currencies of Central and Eastern Europe economies will weaken by more than most over the coming quarters, even if we assume that last night’s flashpoint in the war in Ukraine doesn... 16th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think the rebound in gold will prove short-lived Despite its recent rally, we think that gold will come under renewed pressure before long amid elevated US real yields. 15th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of US equity underperformance and a weaker dollar Although we still don’t think the US dollar has peaked, we suspect the underperformance of US equities that accompanied the greenback’s slump last week will be a regular feature when the currency does... 14th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect equities to struggle and the greenback to gain While the soft US October CPI print added fuel to the rally in “risky” assets and weighed further on the US dollar, we aren’t ready to abandon our forecasts for the former to struggle, and the latter... 11th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the dual rally in Treasuries and equities will last US Treasuries and equities rallied sharply after US CPI came in softer than expected, but we doubt this dual rally will persist. While we think Treasury yields will fall back further as the Fed... 10th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the mid-terms and the lack of market reaction The inconclusive result from yesterday's US mid-term election has made limited impact on financial markets and, unlike in 2020, we doubt that would change even in the seemingly improbable event that... 9th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The worst may not be over for US big-tech Although US “big-tech” stocks have had a torrid time so far this year, including for much of the past week on net, we think there is still ample scope for the “supersector” in which they reside to... 8th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think optimism around China’s COVID policy is misplaced The recent rally in assets and currencies linked to the prospects of China’s economy on hopes that the authorities in China will relax their “zero-COVID” policy is unlikely to last. 7th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Mixed labour market signals may mean yields stay high for a while While we still think a sustained fall in Treasury yields is on the cards, the latest US employment data suggest it may still be a while off yet. 4th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t buy the BoE’s dovish tilt We’re inclined to agree with investors’ decision to shrug off the Bank of England’s dovish tilt and the suggestion that market pricing is wide of the mark earlier. We still expect Bank Rate to rise to... 3rd November 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What a change in tack by the Fed could mean for markets We think an eventual Fed “pivot” will push down long-term Treasury yields, although it may not help the stock market much nor prevent a renewed US dollar rally. 2nd November 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily A weak economy may matter most for sector performance The turnaround in the US stock market since 14th October has coincided with a retreat in Treasury yields. Nonetheless, two of its three “long-duration” sectors have lagged amid disappointing news on... 1st November 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Brazil’s markets could come under pressure before long We suspect investors are a bit too optimistic about the outlook for Brazil’s public finances, and as such its financial markets may come under pressure before too long. 31st October 2022 · 6 mins read
