Capital Daily What to make of dividend futures and the outlook for equities Dividend futures prices suggest to us there may be more downside for global equity prices. 19th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt short-term yield gaps will weigh on the US dollar Even if short-term nominal yield gaps continue to shift against the US dollar, we don’t expect its rally to abate yet. 18th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Pound likely to remain under pressure this year We think the Bank of England will hike interest rates by less than money markets now discount, which in turn should keep the pound under pressure against the dollar. 17th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Equity and commodity prices may go their own ways We think equity and commodity prices will generally head in opposite directions over this year and next. It’s been a rough start to the week for many commodities; at the time of writing most were... 17th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equities and the renminbi may remain under pressure We expect external and domestic headwinds to keep Chinese equities and the renminbi under pressure over the rest of 2022. 15th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Harder to see fears of a US slowdown in markets We think that renewed optimism about the US economy – which seems to have gained more traction in financial markets following signs that inflation is easing – is overdone. Our view that the US economy... 12th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Rising real yields may end US equity outperformance US equities have rallied over recent weeks and outperformed stocks elsewhere, a trend which kicked up a gear after the US CPI data yesterday. But we expect equities in general to fall over the rest of... 11th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Falling (headline) inflation doesn’t preclude renewed rises in yields Despite dropping on the signs of a softening in some inflationary pressures, we suspect the yield of 10-year US Treasuries might climb again this year. 10th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Surging unit labour costs are a danger to the US stock market Today’s news that unit labour costs in the US nonfarm business sector grew at a near double-digit annual pace in Q2 2022, as soaring wages interacted with negative productivity growth, hasn’t ruffled... 9th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What the bond market is telling us about inflation US inflation compensation began to unwind its post-FOMC bounce last week, following some hawkish comments from Fed officials and a slump in oil prices. With inflation compensation now some way below... 8th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Economic resilience may end the twin rally in bonds and stocks After a few weeks of strong performance, “safe” and “risky” assets have both generally sold off today after the strong US payrolls data. We expect this to continue over the rest of 2022. 5th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect BoE hikes to put upward pressure on Gilt yields While the 10-year Gilt yield initially dropped after today’s 50bp hike by the Bank of England, we still expect ongoing monetary tightening to push that yield up over the rest of this year. 4th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We expect real yields to be a near-term headwind for gold We think that real yields in the US will continue to rise and put renewed pressure on the price of gold and most other assets. 3rd August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think the dollar has peaked yet Although the US dollar has faltered over the past couple of weeks, we doubt its bull run is over. 2nd August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of recent sector rotation We don’t expect the renewed outperformance of the consumer discretionary and information technology sectors of the US stock market to continue. It appears to have been driven both by a plunge in TIPS... 1st August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What a stronger yen could mean for the US stock market The surge in the yen against the dollar seems to be a logical, but delayed, response to a shrinking gap between US and Japanese government bond yields. In the wake of big revisions to our forecasts... 29th July 2022 · 7 mins read
