Capital Daily We think risks for the euro remain skewed to the downside Our base case is that the euro will weaken a bit further against the US dollar from here, but the balance of risks suggest to us that it could fall well below our current forecast for parity. 7th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Some market implications of PM Johnson’s possible departure We suspect that, at the margin, the latest political turmoil in the UK adds to the reasons to expect a renewed rise in the 10-year Gilt yield, a further fall in the pound, and continued weakness in... 6th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Euro and euro-zone assets likely to remain under pressure Euro-zone assets and the euro have come under significant pressure recently as concerns about Europe’s energy supplies have intensified. While we think it would take a significant further... 5th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stock market and metals prices may continue to diverge We think that the recent divergence between the fortunes of China’s stock market and the prices of most industrial metals will continue, albeit with the former seeing renewed falls and the latter... 4th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We see more trouble ahead for US equities and Treasuries We don’t expect US equities and Treasuries to fare well in the second half of this year after their torrid performance in the first six months of 2022. 1st July 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Central bank put still missing in action Despite renewed falls in equity markets and broadening signs that investors are bracing for a major slowdown in the global economy, most central banks appear determined to press ahead with the most... 30th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Some market implications of the falls in commodity prices We think further falls in commodity prices will contribute to continued underperformance of commodity-heavy parts of the global equity market, but won’t prevent government bond yields from rising to... 29th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Rebound in long-dated Bund yields may have further to run While we expect the recent rise in the yield of 10-year German Bunds to continue between now and the end of 2022, we think there is a significant risk that the recent calm in euro-zone “peripheral”... 28th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt China’s stock market will go from strength to strength We don’t think that the recent rally in China’s stock market sets the stage for extensive gains over the new few years. 27th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A stock market rebound makes little sense if a recession is nigh The proximate cause of this week’s tentative rebound in the S&P 500 appears to have been a pull-back in Treasury yields. Yet their retreat has reflected concerns that the Fed will drive the economy... 24th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We expect long-dated Treasury yields to resume their rise While the yield of 10-year US Treasuries has fallen sharply in recent days, we doubt it has already passed its peak. 23rd June 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think headwinds to sterling are growing We expect the pound to weaken further against the US dollar over the rest of 2022 as the BoE fails to keep pace with the Fed’s tightening cycle and appetite for risk continues to weaken. 22nd June 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Start of a sustained rebound or just another bear market rally? Despite today’s more than 2% gain in the S&P 500 at the time of writing, we doubt we have seen the bottom in the index given our views that the Fed’s tightening cycle is a long way from over and that... 21st June 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The case for a weaker renminbi remains intact Although we now think policy rates in China will not be lowered further, we still expect the renminbi to weaken to 7.0/US$ this year. Markets Drop-In (22 nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets... 20th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The BoJ stands alone, for now The BoJ left policy unchanged today but we suspect that it will ultimately modify its Yield Curve Control (YCC) framework before long. We think this could, at the margin, add to the upward pressure on... 17th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Hawkish CBs may cause equities to trough later than bonds The willingness of major central banks in developed markets to tighten policy further and/or faster to best inflation has resulted in substantial weakness in equities over the past week or so... 16th June 2022 · 6 mins read
