Capital Daily Mixed earnings unlikely to change outlook for the banking sector Q1 earnings reports from US banks have been a mixed bag thus far; we still believe the sector faces a difficult year ahead. 17th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think a recession will weigh heavily on US equities While the recent data on the US economy have been mixed, we expect a recession there before long. We think that will put renewed downward pressure on US equities. 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Lower Treasury yields likely to continue supporting gold The recent strength in the gold price will probably continue over the course of this year and into 2024 as lower “risk-free” interest rates enhance the yellow metal’s relative appeal. 13th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Mixed CPI unlikely to drive Treasury yields much higher While we think that today’s US CPI data has increased the probability of another rate hike from the Fed next month, we continue to think that Treasuries will resume their rally later this year while... 12th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Ueda-driven drop in the yen unlikely to last Amid a holiday-affected few days in financial markets, one move that stands out is the fall of the yen. But we doubt its weakness will last much longer. 11th April 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt “risky” assets will continue to defy economic gravity We still think “risky” assets are set for a tough time as the US economy continues to slow. 6th April 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily More hikes may not be enough to keep long-dated yields high Despite some central banks pressing on with hikes, we think long-dated yields will end this year at, or below, current levels. 5th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We see weaker growth ending the rally in US equities The resilience of the S&P 500 over the past month or so makes some sense given the boost to valuations from lower “risk-free” interest rates. That said, we think that equity investors are... 4th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt higher oil prices will stop Treasury yields falling further Although the decision by OPEC+ members to cut oil production might push up oil prices further, we don’t think that will stop US Treasury yields falling further over the rest of the year. 3rd April 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to infer from the “narrowing” US stock market Although a “narrowing” of the stock market hasn’t always been a harbinger of an impending slump in equity prices in the US, we suspect it will be on this occasion as a recession takes hold. 31st March 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Stubborn core inflation may be a headwind for euro-zone bonds Persistent core inflationary pressures will, in our view, keep euro-zone sovereign bonds under pressure this year, at least relative to those in other major developed market economies. 30th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the contagion risk from US commercial property During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), non-US investors’ ownership of US residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) was a key way in which they were exposed to problems in the US housing market... 29th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Surge in CMBS spreads may not have run its course The recent surge in the yield spreads of US BBB-rated commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) over Treasuries underscores the risks to US regional banks from their significant exposure to the... 28th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily European G-SIBs need a better RoE to justify a higher valuation While the shares of Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) in Europe bounced today on the news that a buyer has been found for parts of the failed US lender, Silicon Valley Bank, their price... 27th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily How the turmoil is playing out within the stock market We suspect some of the recent trends in the relative performance of equity market sectors will fade or even reverse, perhaps even if the current turmoil persists. 24th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What the Fed and BoE central bank meetings mean for markets With major central banks pressing ahead with rate hikes despite ongoing financial stability concerns, we think that the recent resilience of equity markets will prove to be short-lived even if, as we... 23rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
