Capital Daily The end of Yield Curve Control could boost the yen further An end to Japan’s Yield Curve Control policy looks increasingly likely, in our view, which could push the yen even higher. 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields may only have a bit further to fall The latest evidence of disinflation in the US was met with a muted reaction in US government bond markets. This probably reflects that investors’ expectations for inflation, and interest rates, have... 12th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily More good news in China may boost other EM equities further We think some emerging markets’ stock markets could continue to outperform if the economic picture in China continues to improve. 11th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of China’s ongoing re-opening The speed of China’s ongoing reopening, and how quickly the country’s economy seems to have absorbed its impact, has surprised many and prompted big moves in the country’s financial markets. We think... 10th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Riots add to challenges for Brazil’s markets The storming of Brazil’s congress by protestors on Sunday has been negative for the country’s markets, and we think there are other factors that will drag those markets down further. Drop-Ins – The... 9th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Soft landing or disinflationary bust? While investors seem to have judged that today’s batch of data supports the case for a soft landing, our view remains that the US economy faces a tough couple of quarters. With this in mind, we expect... 6th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields may fall as the Fed changes its tune Despite the FOMC suggesting otherwise, we expect the Fed to be cutting rates by the end of 2023, as the nascent trend of disinflation continues. This informs our forecast that the 10-year Treasury... 5th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the New Year turnaround in euro-zone bonds Although we see some near-term risk due to the still-hawkish ECB, we expect the yield of 10-year German Bunds to decline further by end-2023. Drop-Ins – The World In 2023 (10-11 January): Will 2023 be... 4th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar rebound may set the tone for early 2023 After struggling in the last quarter of 2022, the US dollar has started the new year with a bang. We think the greenback’s rebound has further to run over the coming months. 3rd January 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the latest sell-off in bonds sets the tone for 2023 We doubt the surge in the yields of developed market high-grade government bonds over the past week marks the start of a return to the pattern of the first three quarters of 2022. Instead, we forecast... 22nd December 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We do not expect tech stocks to prolong the S&P 500’s pain We doubt the current bear market in US equities will be as deep or as long as that after the dot com bubble burst, partly because “tech-heavy” sectors did not push up the S&P 500’s valuation relative... 21st December 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What the Bank of Japan’s latest surprise could mean for markets Although upward pressure on the yields of Japanese Government Bonds and on the yen could continue for a while, we’re sceptical of claims that today’s Bank of Japan decision to tweak its yield curve... 20th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Recession fears may continue to weigh on risky assets Investors seem to have priced in a more downbeat outlook for the economy last week, but we think they are still too optimistic. Accordingly, we expect risky assets to come under more pressure over the... 19th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think that the BTP/ Bund spread will widen a bit more After rising sharply after Thursday’s ECB meeting, we think the 10-year BTP/ Bund spread will widen a bit more in the coming months. But we don’t think that the recent divergence between 10-year... 16th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the latest central bank bonanza The last round of major central bank meetings for the year has proven an eventful one, with some surprising messages sending financial markets into another policymaker-induced convulsion. Three key... 15th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Renminbi rally may stall even as the Fed turns less hawkish We think the recent rally in the renminbi against the US dollar will lose a bit of steam over the next few months, as China’s economy struggles amid virus-related disruptions. 14th December 2022 · 8 mins read
