Europe Commercial Property Outlook Decline in values to match GFC; offices fare worst With economic activity weakening, we expect rental growth to continue trending downwards over the next year. At the same time, valuations remain stretched despite property yields continuing to rise at... 4th October 2023 · 36 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall through 2024 - retail to outperform With the economy showing signs of slowing and transaction volumes likely to stay low in H2 2023, a tough 6-12 months lies in store for commercial real estate. We still expect cap rates to rise on the... 25th September 2023 · 22 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Sep. 23) After a brief respite earlier this year, property yields are once again on the rise, driven by a further increase in gilt yields. We don’t expect a repeat of the surge seen last year, but we also... 22nd September 2023 · 1 min read
Event Property Drop-In: US CRE – Updated forecasts and more downside risks 1695915000 The bad news around US commercial real estate continues to roll in, but appraisal-based indices have so far only fallen by 10%.
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (Aug. 23) The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed a reversal of last quarter’s forecast upgrades, bringing the consensus view more in line with our own. The surge in interest rates thanks to high inflation is... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How concerning is the fall in CRE equity prices? Rising interest rates have pushed down commercial property equities, which implies capital values will come under further downward pressure. That said, the large correction in equities seen in 2022... 5th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2023) All-property values are down by 10% from their mid-2022 peaks, but we think there is still another 15% to come by the end of 2024. Much of that price fall will be driven by a rise in cap rates in... 23rd August 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Property Index (Q2 2023) Total returns were negative again in Q2 at -2.0% q/q. This was dragged down by the office sector, where values fell by 7% and quarterly returns were -5.8%, with all other sectors outperforming the all... 26th July 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jul. 23) Higher-than-expected core inflation means interest rates are now set to be higher for longer and we still think the economy will enter a mild recession later this year. That’s not a great backdrop for... 20th July 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update Uneasy outlook for global commercial property We have made only minor changes to our latest global forecasts which still imply that property will underperform other assets in the short to medium term. Further out, real estate returns are set to... 19th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook San Francisco and Seattle values to drop 40% in 2023-25 Further downgrades to our national office outlook have driven corresponding cuts to return prospects in our metro-level forecasts this quarter. San Francisco still has the poorest outlook, with our... 7th July 2023 · 12 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall by another 15%, offices to fare worse The effects of March’s regional bank failures have yet to come through in the performance data, but transaction volumes have fallen off a cliff. Signs of distress in offices are growing as the sector... 29th June 2023 · 20 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Office values unlikely to regain their peaks even by 2040 The reduction in office demand due to remote work will cause a hit to net operating incomes on a par with, or worse than, that experienced by malls over the last six years. And in line with the... 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Spring 2023: Consensus forecasts under-estimate the pain to come It comes as no surprise to see a sharp downgrade to consensus forecasts given the combined impact of the regional banking crisis and growing office sector distress. But despite those downgrades, our... 2nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (May) The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed another upgrade to forecasts for total returns in 2023, driven by improvements to both the rental and capital value outlook. A better-than-expected start to the... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Weak Q1, but bigger price falls to come in Q2 The economy has been relatively resilient so far, but with the banking turmoil set to weigh on activity, we continue to expect a recession this year. Slower growth has already translated to softer... 19th May 2023 · 10 mins read