We expect growth in Latin America to slow next year – in contrast to the consensus and IMF view for growth to stabilise or even pick up in 2026. While the impact of US import tariffs will generally be limited, we think analysts are underestimating the drag from lower commodity prices and fiscal tightening. The flipside is that inflation and interest rates will be lower than is widely anticipated. We hold a particularly dovish view on the outlook for interest rates in Brazil.