Speakers:
Two years ago, we argued that structural forces – from AI-driven productivity gains to ageing demographics and higher government borrowing – would push equilibrium real interest rates in the US and across developed markets far above what markets were then pricing. Recent bond market moves now suggest investors may have overtaken our original estimates.
Are markets signalling an even higher r*? Could the surge in AI investment lift the neutral rate beyond previous projections? And what role is Donald Trump’s policy agenda playing in shaping the outlook? Our Global and Markets economists hosted this online briefing, to answer these questions and more.
Start date:
