Egyptian pound has a lot further to fall

Spillovers from the war in Ukraine have caused Egypt’s large current account deficit to widen this year and, with the country struggling to attract stable forms of external financing, officials will need to stick to their shift to a flexible exchange rate in order to restore macroeconomic stability. The result is that we think the pound will need to weaken to around 25/$ (from 18.9/$ now) by the end of 2024. EM Drop-In (4^th August, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our monthly online session on the big issues in emerging markets. In this 20-minute briefing, the team will be answering your questions about debt risks amid global tightening, the latest on the inflation outlook and much more. Register now.