Brazil set to begin tightening monetary policy

Interest rate hikes in the region are imminent. We think that a 50bps hike in Brazil this month is almost a done deal, with Peru is likely to follow suit in June. Meanwhile Colombia, and now Chile following the earthquake in February, may wait until Q3. Although growth in these economies is likely to impress in the first half of this year, we continue to expect the recovery to fade later this year and into 2011. As a result, we doubt that the aggressive hikes currently priced into the market will materialise. We still expect Mexican rates to remain on hold at 4.5% throughout this year.