Tweaking our interest rate forecasts

We are making some small tweaks to our forecast for interest rates in Latin America. If the global economy weakens later this year, as we expect, it is still likely that most central banks in the region will loosen policy. But in the meantime it seems that rates will remain on hold in most countries for the next 3-6 months. The exceptions are Brazil, where we expect one final 50bps cut in the benchmark Selic rate next month, and Colombia, where further rate hikes are likely in order to temper rapid credit growth.