The speed and extent of the collapse in Japanese exports should at least mean that the immediate adjustment to weaker global demand has now largely run its course. The fall-out in terms of the damage to confidence, additional production cuts, growing spare capacity and a weaker labour market will linger rather longer. Nonetheless, the Japanese economy has already taken a very large hit from the world recession and there should not be much more bad news to come. The upshot is that Japan is a prime candidate for a “V”-shaped recovery, with a return to growth (on a quarterly basis) as early as the second quarter.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services