Skip to main content

What’s really happening to US inflation expectations?

Expectations of lower inflation have probably played only a minor role in the fall in Treasury inflation compensation – the gap between the nominal yields of conventional Treasuries and the real yields of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) – since the slide in oil prices began. A larger drop in the term premiums of conventional Treasuries than in those of TIPS has probably played the major role.

Become a client to read more

This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.

Already have an account?

You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.

Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it

Register for free

Sign up for a free account to gain:

  • Unlock additional content
  • Register for Capital Economics events
  • Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
  • Request a free trial of our services


Get access