We don’t think that Fed easing will boost Treasuries

Although we expect the FOMC to loosen policy substantially by the spring of 2020, we are not forecasting a renewed decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to below 2%. This is because we think that the Committee will cut its target for the federal funds rate by less than investors are now anticipating. Our end-2019 forecast for the yield remains 2.25%, and we still expect it to drift up after the easing cycle is over.