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The end of the beginning (Q3 2009)

Investors already appear to have lost their appetite for risk. That may not last if incoming data over the summer show that the global recession is continuing to abate. Nonetheless, the weakness of the recovery should continue to weigh on equities, commodities, commercial real estate and the euro. Government bonds should benefit. A growing amount of slack in the world economy means that deflation remains the bigger threat than runaway inflation triggered by quantitative easing.

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