Global growth will probably not be as bad as many fear, while monetary policy should remain extremely accommodative in all the major developed economies for at least another year and a half. The downside for risky assets should therefore be limited. Commodity prices are likely to fall a bit more, but equities should trend sideways. The outlook for government bonds is mixed – the best days for US Treasuries could be over soon, but the prospects for UK Gilts still appear rosy.
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