ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q1 2021)

The Q1 ECB Bank Lending Survey revealed that the demand for bank credit fell in early 2021, and banks continued to tighten their lending standards as the pandemic dragged on and vaccine rollouts remained slow. This suggests lending growth will be weaker this year, which could hold back the recovery.
Melanie Debono Europe Economist
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European Economics Weekly

ECB’s line on inflation contrasts with the Fed’s

In contrast to those at the US Fed, ECB policymakers are not ready to retire their argument that the current bout of high inflation is temporary. This reflects the significant difference in inflationary pressures between the two economies. Next week, we will get the detailed breakdown of November’s German inflation data, which will shed more light on the stronger-than-expected outturn. Meanwhile, with less than two weeks to go until December’s ECB meeting, the Governing Council appears to have reached a consensus on some aspects of its asset purchase programmes. But comments from Christine Lagarde today suggest that it will avoid making any long-term commitments.

3 December 2021

European Data Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct) & Final PMIs (Nov.)

Euro-zone retail sales have levelled off since June, but rising Covid cases and the return of restrictions are likely to weigh on sales and other components of consumption in the coming months.

3 December 2021

European Data Response

EZ Unemployment (Oct.)

While labour market conditions continued to improve in October, the recent deterioration of the Covid situation and increased uncertainty due to the Omicron variant are likely to mean the recovery takes a breather over the next couple of months, just as it did when restrictions were in place at the start of 2021.

2 December 2021

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Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Sweden Consumer Prices (Mar.)

Swedish inflation rose closer to the Riksbank’s 2% target in March, in line with expectations. As it should only breach the target temporarily, we continue to expect the Riksbank to keep the repo rate on hold for the foreseeable future.

14 April 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Norway Consumer Prices (Mar.)

The fact that core inflation in Norway came in above target for the fifteenth month in a row in March came as no surprise. However, it underlines that the Norges Bank is in a very different place to many of its peers, and is set to start raising interest rates later this year.

9 April 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Sweden GDP Indicator (Feb.)

Monthly GDP data from Sweden for February indicate that output it is all but certain to have expanded in Q1. The recent surge in virus cases casts a cloud on the government’s plans to ease restrictions again soon, but Sweden is still set to regain its pre-crisis level before most other European economies.

8 April 2021
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