Country divergence looks set to continue

Business and consumer surveys suggest that growth in the euro-zone as a whole will continue at a fairly healthy pace of around 0.4% per quarter in the near term. But there is a growing divergence by country. The German survey indicators have stabilised at a relatively high level while those for Italy and Spain have typically continued to weaken. With the health of the German labour market boosting wage growth and consumer confidence there still strong, we think that the economy will continue to perform well despite slowing exports. But recent falls in equity prices and tightening financial conditions bode ill for Italy, while the latest drop in Spanish consumer confidence is also a worrying sign.