We have warned about the risk of a sharp slowdown in Turkey for some time and this now seems to be materialising. The economy is likely to experience a quarter or two of negative growth this year. A strong Q1 means that GDP growth will be around 3.5% over 2018 as a whole and we expect growth to slow further to 2.5% in 2019. That would be a much weaker performance than most currently anticipate.
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