The National Bank of Poland (NBP) unexpectedly hiked its policy rate by 40bp to 0.50% at today’s MPC meeting, but the accompanying communications were underwhelming and suggest that the rate hike was not as hawkish a move as might have been first interpreted. We expect the policy rate to reach 2.00% next year, but there is a lot of uncertainty about where the dovish members on the MPC currently stand.
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