Russia, Gazprom and the shale revolution

The development of shale gas in Europe is unlikely to have a significant impact on Russia’s energy exports over the next couple of years. But in time, it could prove to be the final nail in the coffin of Russia’s commodity-based growth model. From Russia’s perspective, the likely drop in gas revenues looks manageable. But if shale oil is developed on any significant scale the impact on Russia could be far more damaging.