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Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2020)

The batch of Q1 GDP data for Central & Eastern Europe shows that the region’s economies were in freefall at the end of March after lockdown measures were imposed. A strong start to the year meant that the data in Poland and Hungary were better than in the Czech Republic, but with most lockdown measures to remain in place we expect Q1 to be dwarfed by much steeper falls in GDP in Q2.
Liam Peach Emerging Markets Economist
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Emerging Europe Economics Update

The impact of Ukrainian refugees on CEE so far

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Emerging Europe Data Response

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29 June 2022

Emerging Europe Chart Book

Tightening cycles still have some way to go

Inflation has continued to beat expectations across Emerging Europe over the past month, reaching rates not seen in decades in most countries. It is now weighing more heavily on consumer confidence, and the surprise inflation releases for May prompted central banks to accelerate tightening cycles in a number of economies, including Czechia (125bp hike) and Hungary (185bp). Such large hikes are unlikely to be repeated but, with inflation not set to peak for at least a few more months, tightening cycles still have some way to go. The exceptions are Russia and Turkey. Falling inflation will give Russia’s central bank scope to cut its policy rate further and President Erdogan’s grip on Turkey’s central bank means that rate hikes to combat inflation of more than 70% y/y remain off the cards.

29 June 2022

More from Liam Peach

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CEE: inflation a growing risk as economies re-open

Price pressures in Central Europe are building from a broad range of sources and, while most of these are likely to be temporary, the issue is that countries were experiencing stubbornly high inflation before these pressures emerged. With output gaps set to close more quickly than in other parts of the emerging world by 2023, we think that the risks over the coming years are skewed to a prolonged period of much higher inflation and, subsequently, more aggressive monetary tightening.

2 June 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Poland and Hungary Q1 outperformance to continue

The breakdown of Q1 GDP data showed that strong domestic demand supported expansions in Hungary and Poland, despite severe virus waves, whereas another fall in household spending held back Czechia’s recovery. Growth will gather steam from Q2 onwards, but we think that Poland and Hungary will emerge from the crisis more quickly than Czechia.

1 June 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (May)

The rise in the manufacturing PMIs to fresh record highs for Czechia and Poland in May was driven by output and new orders, but supply issues have continued to push up input and output prices. In contrast, Turkey’s PMI fell to a 12-month low, but should rise this month now that the lockdown has been lifted.

1 June 2021
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