While growth picked up in Q3, our China Activity Proxy still suggests that the economy is expanding at a much weaker pace than official figures indicate. Export growth has continued to hold up well in the face of US tariffs but, even with the reduction in US fentanyl tariffs, exports will provide less of a prop to growth over the coming year. The same is true of fiscal policy, which will remain accommodative but do less to drive growth next year.
Field Research
Growth weak but stable
Rerouting providing less of an offset
Can China's domestic consumers take the place of US ones?
Politburo prioritises supply-side over demand-side
Childbirth subsidies a small step toward rebalancing
Presales ban wouldn’t support home prices much
CAP: Economy holding up, but growth remains weak
China's Nvidia ban signals strong push for chip self-sufficiency