While China’s growth picked up in November on the back of stronger export growth, the economy looks set to have expanded by less than 3.5% this year. Exports should continue growing next year, despite tariff barriers. We’re also expecting fiscal policy to remain supportive. But exports and fiscal support will provide a smaller prop to the economy next year. With the property downturn set to drag on and overcapacity likely to remain entrenched, we’re expecting growth of just 3% in 2026.