China’s growth picked up a touch in July, but we expect the economy to remain weak this year. US tariffs will continue to weigh on exports, even as rerouting helps to offset some of the hit. Barring a mid-year widening of the budget, fiscal tailwinds will diminish over the rest of this year. And without sufficient demand support, we expect overcapacity to keep the economy in deflation.
Field Research
China Outlook: Fiscal prop to fade as exports slow
Rerouting will ease tariff blow to Chinese exports
Can China's domestic consumers take the place of US ones?
Politburo prioritises supply-side over demand-side
Childbirth subsidies a small step toward rebalancing
Presales ban wouldn’t support home prices much
Limited US-China “deal” suggests ambitions are low