China Economics Weekly PBOC window guidance, census data gems The People’s Bank (PBOC) has struck a dovish tone in its recent public statements, parroting calls by China’s leadership for lower real lending rates. But media reports suggest that the PBOC is taking... 9th April 2021 · 8 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Consumer price deflation reversed last month due to a jump in fuel prices and an uptick in core inflation. But evidence of intensifying price pressures was clearest in producer price inflation, which... 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Vaccination steps up a gear China’s vaccination campaign has accelerated sharply over the past week. The daily pace of vaccination is now only just short of the five million needed to hit the target of inoculating 40% of the... 1st April 2021 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly Throwing in the towel on PBOC rate hikes Policy normalisation has run a long way already in China. Interbank rates have returned to near pre-pandemic levels. Credit growth has slowed. And a PBOC survey published yesterday signals that last... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
China Activity Monitor Rebound levelling off as tighter policy starts to bite Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows a surge in year-on-year growth at the start of 2021. But the picture is more mixed after accounting for favourable base effects. Buoyant foreign demand boosted... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold, PBOC signals preference for other tools Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged today. We have been forecasting the PBOC to hike rates this year but the likelihood of that is diminishing – the PBOC appears to favour... 22nd March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Acrimony in Alaska, Made in China, fiscal tightening, The acrimonious meeting in Alaska underlines that a new US administration has not led to a reset of US-China relations. China’s leadership has long appeared set on a course for industrial decoupling... 19th March 2021 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.) Economic growth surged in y/y terms in January and February. But the picture is more mixed after accounting for favourable base effects. Travel restrictions weighed on retail sales but boosted... 15th March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Plan signals property construction is set to slow The Five-Year Plan includes numerous targets and projections for how China’s economy will develop over the next few years. Among them are a couple that highlight growing structural constraints on... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) After four months of consecutive declines, broad credit growth accelerated in February. But we think the slowdown in lending will resume before long given the hawkish signals out of the National... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) A drop in food inflation caused by shifts in the timing of the Lunar New Year meant that headline consumer price inflation remained in negative territory last month. That said, broader price pressures... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jan. & Feb.) Export and import growth surged in y/y terms in January and February. Even accounting for favourable base effects, shipments look strong. Exports continued to be buoyed by stuck-at-home foreign... 8th March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update The NPC: Taking away the punch bowl The reports delivered at today’s opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) confirm that with the COVID-19 downturn now in the rear-view mirror the focus of China’s leadership has shifted away... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials strike hawkish tone ahead of the NPC The National People’s Congress has just kicked off in Beijing. We will publish an Update with our initial analysis once the key details from the meeting have been made public. Recent comments by... 5th March 2021 · 8 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Feb.) The latest manufacturing surveys suggest that factory activity didn’t receive the boost we had anticipated from travel restrictions over the Spring Festival. Nevertheless, we think activity will... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to expect at the NPC The National People’s Congress – the stage on which China's government sets out its economic plans – starts on Friday. We expect the budget to confirm the withdrawal of post-COVID fiscal support. It’s... 26th February 2021 · 5 mins read
