China Economics Update LPR on hold as PBOC leans on other policy tools Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold again today. The PBOC has now fully reversed last year’s credit acceleration using quantitative controls. Accordingly, policy rate hikes that... 21st June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Inflation unlikely to rise any further this year While the prospect of rising inflation is a key global concern, in China disinflationary pressures have been building and we are revising down our forecast for consumer price inflation over the second... 18th June 2021 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (May) Headline growth on all the key indicators dropped back last month. But after adjusting for base effects the picture was more mixed, with investment slowing, industrial output growth holding steady and... 16th June 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China rivalry: industrial policy, vaccine diplomacy The US Senate took a leaf out of China’s industrial policy playbook this week by passing USICA, a bill that earmarks $190bn in federal funding for strategic sectors and bears striking similarities... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Broad credit growth continued to slide in May and is now at its slowest since February last year. Evidence of policy tightening weighing on borrowing is clearest in bank loan growth which, apart from... 10th June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Producer price inflation continued to surge and reached its highest level since September 2008 last month, on the back of a further rise in global commodity prices. That said, there are some signs in... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (May) Headline trade growth remained elevated last month. But trade volumes dropped back in levels terms and, while supply constraints are partly to blame, there are signs that demand may have peaked too. 7th June 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Can the government spend its way to more births? While few observers believe the new three-child policy announced this week will do much to lift China’s birth rate, some are pinning higher hopes on the promise of more generous welfare benefits for... 4th June 2021 · 8 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May) Unlike the official PMI survey released yesterday, the Caixin manufacturing index published today rose last month. The key takeaway is that while output edged up on the back of still strong demand... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack The three-child policy: too little, too late State media announced today that China’s family planning policy will be relaxed to allow all families to have three children, up from the current limit of two. This comes shortly after China’s once-a... 31st May 2021 · 13 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (May) The latest surveys suggest that stronger construction activity nudged up overall growth this month and that supply shortages are pushing up prices even as final demand for manufactured goods appears... 31st May 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC’s turn to target currency manipulators After regulators last week pledged to root speculators out from the domestic commodity market, this week it was the turn of the People’s Bank to tackle manipulation in the currency market, which it... 28th May 2021 · 6 mins read
China Activity Monitor Surprising on the upside Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output rose further above its pre-virus trend last month thanks to the recent rebound in services and continued strength in industry and construction. We... 28th May 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccine surge, commodity price curbs After a slow start, China’s COVID-19 vaccine rollout is now one of the world’s fastest and is currently responsible for over half of daily inoculations globally. At this pace, China could catch up... 21st May 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC credit objectives being met without LPR hikes Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for the 13 th consecutive month today. Official goals for reining in credit have already been achieved by other means. As such, we do not... 20th May 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Apr.) Year-on-year growth on all indicators dropped back last month. This partly reflects a less flattering base for comparison. But current momentum was also a bit softer, especially for retail sales. We... 17th May 2021 · 3 mins read
