China Economics Update LPR on hold for now but likely to end 2021 higher Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. But with monetary conditions already being tightened in practice and underlying inflation set to rebound, we think it is still likely... 20th January 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update All of the service sector now back to growth The detailed breakdown of China’s Q4 GDP data published today shows that the services sector, which had been lagging construction and industry, has returned to its pre-virus growth path, with all... 19th January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.) On the official figures, China’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in two years last quarter. The monthly data suggest that growth dropped back slightly heading into 2021 but it remains strong. We... 18th January 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Less travel, more work this Lunar New Year With new virus cases at their highest in 10 months, local governments and firms are discouraging workers from travelling during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday. While this will deal a blow to... 15th January 2021 · 7 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Dec.) Exports continued to do well last month, as renewed lockdowns abroad ensured the shift in consumption from services to goods persisted in many of China’s trading partners. Meanwhile, a pick-up in... 14th January 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) The slowdown in broad credit growth gathered momentum in December. We think credit growth will drop back further in the coming months as the PBOC continues to focus on reining in financial risks now... 13th January 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Headline inflation returned to positive territory last month as the drag from pork prices eased. Broader price pressures also edged up on the back of stronger demand. With underlying inflation likely... 11th January 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Virus disruptions linger but vaccines deliver This week’s lockdown of Shijiazhuang, a city of 11 million, is a reminder that sporadic flare-ups of COVID-19 are still imposing an economic cost on China. Domestic passenger travel in particular... 8th January 2021 · 7 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Dec.) The latest manufacturing surveys suggest that factory activity remained strong in December but that the pace of expansion has started to ease. The official non-manufacturing PMI suggests that growth... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack And the winner of 2020 is… COVID-19 has wreaked havoc on the world economy, which is set to contract the most since WWII this year. China has not been immune – it is on track for its slowest growth since the Mao era – but set... 23rd December 2020 · 12 mins read
China Activity Monitor Growth still being buoyed by stimulus & exports Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth remained robust last month thanks to a further pick-up in services and continued strength in construction and exports. We expect growth to remain... 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update CEWC sets more hawkish tone on monetary policy Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. But with China’s leadership eyeing a gradual withdrawal of policy support, we think the PBOC will start to hike its policy rates next... 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tech crackdown, demand-side reform The recent Politburo meeting underscored that reining in the tech sector's has become a key priority for China’s leadership. The economic consequences of this crackdown are far from clear-cut. But... 18th December 2020 · 7 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Nov.) China’s economy continued to accelerate across all fronts in November. We expect output to remain above-trend in the coming quarters, even as tailwinds from stimulus and exports start to ease. 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Year-end leadership forum to flag hawkish policy shift China’s leadership will gather in the coming days for the annual Central Economic Work Conference. With the economy now back on track, we think discussions will focus on the recent surge in debt... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) After accelerating in recent months, broad credit growth slowed slightly in November. We think this marks the start of a slowdown in credit growth as the PBOC turns its attention to tackling financial... 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
