China Data Response PMIs (Oct.) The Caixin manufacturing PMI points to an acceleration in manufacturing activity in October. Admittedly, the official survey released on Saturday pointed to a marginal slowdown. But taken together... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy expanded for the first time in over a year last quarter, thanks to fiscal stimulus and stronger foreign demand. Output is still well below its previous peak due to the double blow... 30th October 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Plenum readout heavy on ambition, light on detail The Fifth Plenum, held in Beijing to discuss the government’s 14 th Five-Year Plan and long-run goals, concluded yesterday. In its post-meeting communique, the leadership laid out ambitious plans to... 30th October 2020 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack The high stakes for China’s Five-Year Plan China’s leaders concluded their discussions on the 14th Five-Year Plan today. The initial post-meeting communique offered few new details but more may be revealed at a press conference tomorrow. The... 29th October 2020 · 12 mins read
China Economics Weekly The “lose-lose” behind China’s self-sufficiency push A push to raise China’s self-sufficiency in key technology sectors looks likely to be a theme of the new Five-Year Plan that the leadership will discuss at next week’s Plenum. Many commentators appear... 23rd October 2020 · 5 mins read
China Activity Monitor Growth hits a two-year high Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth continued to accelerate last month, thanks to policy stimulus, strong foreign demand and fewer constraints on services activity. On our estimates... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Services still uneven but improving across the board The detailed breakdown of China’s Q3 GDP data published today shows that the recovery within the service sector remains highly uneven. Encouragingly though, all types of services activity showed a... 20th October 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged, hikes likely next year Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. With the PBOC appearing reluctant to keep monetary policy loose for longer than needed amid a broadening economic recovery, we think the... 20th October 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q3), Activity & Spending (Sep.) China’s economy continued its rapid rebound last quarter, with the recovery broadening out and becoming less reliant on investment-led stimulus. What’s more, the monthly data show that growth was... 19th October 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export outlook still strong despite virus flare-ups China’s goods exports probably can’t keep growing at their incredibly-rapid recent rates for long, not least because infection flare-ups in Europe and the US will take some steam out of the recoveries... 16th October 2020 · 6 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Headline consumer price inflation, weighed down by easing food price inflation, continued its decline last month. But core consumer prices rose again for the second straight month and factory gate... 15th October 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Broad credit growth hit is highest level in nearly three years. We think this acceleration should continue until early next year. 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) Exports continued to do well, most likely thanks to the recent strength of retail sales among China’s major trading partners. And a jump in imports suggests that domestic investment spending remains... 13th October 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Recovery broadening out China has become the first major economy to return to its pre-virus growth path, thanks to its rapid containment of COVID-19 and effective stimulus response. The rebound initially leaned heavily on... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Households spending more, RMB gains to continue Consumer spending continued to strengthen during the Golden Week holiday, helping to dispel some concerns about the lopsided nature of China’s recovery and providing a further tailwind today to the... 9th October 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending boon, property developer caution Holiday spending during China’s ongoing “Golden Week” should ease concerns that lacklustre consumption will cause the economic recovery to stall. The property sector remains, in our view, a bigger... 2nd October 2020 · 5 mins read
