China Chart Pack Defaults by state firms surge Incoming data continue to point to strength in domestic activity, spending and revenues. Yet strains in China’s corporate bond market continue to grow, with the value of defaults hitting all-time... 25th February 2021 · 12 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong sustains fiscal support Hong Kong has curtailed some of last year’s emergency spending but today’s budget signals that fiscal policy remains loose. There is room to do more, but the key determinant of the economic outlook is... 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Chinese stocks drop 3% in retreat from record highs “Monetary conditions have tightened in practice since the start of the year,” said Sheana Yue, an economist at Capital Economics. “We expect the People’s Bank of China to formalise the shift with... 22nd February 2021 · Financial Times
China Economics Update LPR unchanged but PBOC more hawkish Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged on Saturday. But monetary conditions have tightened in practice since the start of the year. We expect the PBOC to formalise the shift with... 22nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policymaker silence, festival spending, the Ox & GDP Years of the Ox aren't typically bullish for China's economy. 2021 will be different, but recent inaction by both the Finance Ministry and People’s Bank points to a withdrawal of policy support that... 19th February 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout will accelerate China appears once again to have successfully crushed the recent COVID-19 flare-up. Its vaccination campaign is looking less impressive and the original target for inoculations by Lunar New Year... 11th February 2021 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Headline consumer price inflation returned to negative territory last month, but this was largely due to a shift in the timing of the Lunar New Year. In fact, producer price inflation turned positive... 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Credit growth in China dropped back further last month due to a broad-based slowdown in both bank and non-bank lending. Credit is likely to continue decelerating as the PBOC focuses on reining in... 9th February 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Ant capitulates, officials chip away at hukou barriers The government is taking some further steps to boost labour market mobility by making it easier for migrants to settle and access healthcare in many of China’s cities. That will ease one constraint on... 5th February 2021 · 7 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Jan.) The latest surveys suggest that the pace of expansion in the manufacturing sector slowed in January. But that’s not too surprising given that output was already well above trend – capacity utilisation... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal taps turned off, Spring Festival travel subdued A rush to meet annual spending targets pushed China’s quarterly budget deficit to the second largest on record at the end of 2020. But the government has now turned off the taps. Local government bond... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy was treading water at the end of 2020 as the re-imposition of containment measures weighed on consumption. Unless authorities bring the ongoing outbreak under control soon, the... 29th January 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Surge in interbank rates a hawkish signal from PBOC Short-term funding costs for banks have risen sharply during the past couple of weeks. The 7-day depository repo rate (DR007), which has been flagged by the PBOC as a key benchmark and focus of... 29th January 2021 · 13 mins read
China Activity Monitor Growth edges down slightly at the end of 2020 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth softened slightly at the end of 2020 but remained strong on the back of a further improvement in services. Domestic consumption should continue to... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC takes aim at digital payments duopoly The People’s Bank this week issued draft guidelines that would force China’s mobile payments giants to cede ground to their rivals or face being broken up. The argument that this is needed to foster... 22nd January 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economic Outlook A year of two halves China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and... 21st January 2021 · 22 mins read
