China’s Exports Strengthen, Despite Covid-19 Disruptions After months of expanding faster than its pre-virus pace, and with the gradual unwinding of seasonal boosts, China’s trade machine will likely turn in less dazzling numbers in the coming quarters... 7th September 2021 · Wall Street Journal
China Data Response China Trade (Aug.) Exports and imports were much stronger than anticipated last month thanks to buoyant demand, even as the data point to some lingering supply shortages. We continue to think shipments will soften in... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Regulatory crackdown or ideological campaign? What looked like a tech crackdown, broadened to a crackdown on large private firms, then to a wider regulatory push. This week it started to resemble a society-wide ideological campaign aimed at... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The Caixin manufacturing index dropped to an 18-month low in August, adding to signs from the official PMI released yesterday that industry is coming off the boil. The surveys point to worsening... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Party soon to target property and healthcare costs A WeChat post by a prominent blogger voicing support for Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign has been widely re-published by state media, giving it a rare seal of Party approval. The post argues... 31st August 2021 · 13 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Aug.) The latest surveys suggest that China’s economy contracted last month as virus disruptions weighed heavily on services activity. Industry also continued to come off the boil as supply chain... 31st August 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property comedown, vaccine setback The macro backdrop behind Evergrande’s latest profit warning is a rapidly cooling property market. Home sales have fallen below 2019 levels in recent weeks, with the prop to demand from excess... 27th August 2021 · 5 mins read
China Activity Monitor Delta speed bump not the only drag Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output dropped back further in July. This shouldn’t be dismissed as a temporary setback due to the recent virus outbreak. The main drag last month came... 24th August 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Jul.) There was a broad-based slowdown in all the key indicators last month. This partly reflects disruptions to consumer activity due to the recent virus flare-up and flooding in central China. But... 16th August 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Delta wave may have peaked but it won’t be the last Aggressive containment measures, mass testing and quarantine appear already to be bringing China’s Delta outbreak under control. The economic cost should be fleeting – but it will be felt beyond China... 13th August 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) After stabilising in June, broad credit growth resumed its downward trajectory in July and is now at its slowest since February last year. We expect the slowdown and resulting headwind to the economy... 11th August 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Inflation / Trade (Jul.) Rising factory gate prices for electronics products signal that supply chains are still tight but, with both semiconductor imports to China and China’s exports of electronics rising over the past... 9th August 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Delta disruption spreads as vaccine exports soar Escalating efforts to contain China’s first Delta variant outbreak will hurt some sectors of the economy. But if they are as successful as they have been in the past, the overall damage will be... 6th August 2021 · 8 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Jul.) The latest surveys suggest that the pace of growth slowed more than expected last month. Supply bottlenecks remain a constraint. But the PMIs suggest demand is cooling too, taking the heat out of... 2nd August 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Delta putting zero-COVID approach under strain China’s ability to quash COVID flare-ups is being tested again: the Delta variant outbreak that was identified in Nanjing last week has already spread further within China than any since the first... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy contracted last quarter as exports moderated after an exceptional Q1. The path of output is likely to remain subdued until Hong Kong’s borders reopen. 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
