China Data Response China PMIs (Feb.) The surveys suggest that the pace of economic growth edged up slightly in February. But it remains weak amid continued supply shortages, higher imported inflation, and persistent disruption to... 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Renminbi strength a headache for the PBOC As well as a geopolitical quagmire for China’s leadership, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become a headache for the PBOC. It has been signalling its dissatisfaction with the strength of the renminbi... 28th February 2022 · 12 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to expect from the NPC Some tips for interpreting the economic plans that will be revealed at the National People’s Congress next Saturday: If you want to know what officials think about the outlook, focus less on the real... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Lockdown to tip Hong Kong into a deep recession The expansionary budget unveiled today will provide some support to Hong Kong’s economy this year. But this is unlikely to fully offset the drag from Fed rate hikes, let alone the massive hit to... 23rd February 2022 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Chinese inflation continued to drop back last month. Although there are some signs of supply disruption, we think these will be temporary. Factory-gate inflation should moderate further while consumer... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending disappoints, vaccines pay dividends In some respects, activities around the Lunar New Year holiday were closer to normal this year than last, but tourism spending was still depressed. We expect further monetary easing to be announced in... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly HK virus woes, holiday travel, fiscal support Hong Kong will be an exception to the global pattern that Omicron inflicts less economic damage than earlier virus variants. The city’s zero-COVID policies are proving far less effective than the... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack A less subdued Lunar New Year Millions of people traditionally travel across China to spend this evening, the eve of Lunar New Year, with their families. The tradition has been severely disrupted by the pandemic. Last year, amid a... 31st January 2022 · 12 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Jan.) The latest surveys suggest that the pace of economic growth slowed in January due to a combination of weaker foreign demand, cooling property activity and efforts to contain recent outbreaks. We think... 31st January 2022 · 4 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy barely grew in Q4 despite a rebound in goods exports. And with stricter containment measures imposed this month to contain the latest outbreak, we expect an outright contraction... 28th January 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Too much of a good thing? The R&D intensity of China’s economy continued to rise last year and is converging toward the levels of advanced economies. But that’s not necessarily a good thing for a country with much lower... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economic Outlook Cyclical trough, tepid rebound China will be buffeted in the first half of 2022 by COVID outbreaks and a further slowdown in property construction. Policy support should improve the picture later in the year, but mounting... 26th January 2022 · 23 mins read
China Activity Monitor Starting 2022 on the back foot Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy was still struggling to regain momentum at the end of last year amid troubles in the property sector and recurrent COVID outbreaks which... 24th January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Some relief for property developers This week’s cut to policy rates is one of a succession of recent moves designed to stabilize residential property sales. Developers have also been given a little more breathing room in terms of their... 21st January 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Deposit rates may be next PBOC target Today’s reductions to both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) continue the PBOC’s efforts to push down borrowing costs. We expect additional easing to follow in the coming months... 20th January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.) Official GDP growth beat expectations last quarter and in q/q terms was the strongest since late 2020. But we are sceptical that this reflects the reality on the ground – our China Activity Proxy... 17th January 2022 · 3 mins read
