China Economic Outlook Reopening rebound set to slow Activity has bounced back from lockdowns but China’s economic recovery will become more challenging from here on as exports turn from tailwind to headwind and the property downturn deepens. Policy... 28th July 2022 · 22 mins read
China Chart Pack Housing crisis flares up again The mortgage boycotts are a double threat to developers and to the housing market. They have drawn attention to the problem of cash-strapped developers being unable to complete properties that they... 27th July 2022 · 11 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Economy on the mend but still limping Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economic hit from lockdowns had largely reversed in June. But infection numbers are ticking up again. And even if another large-scale virus wave is... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.) The statistics bureau claim that output in Q2 was slightly higher than a year ago. That’s implausible even accounting for the strong rebound shown on the monthly data for June. 15th July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jun.) Import volumes fell to a three-year low last month, pointing to continued weakness in China’s construction sector. Exports rebounded strongly as shipping bottlenecks eased. But we think this may be... 13th July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Zero COVID, zero growth China’s economy almost certainly contracted last quarter. Perhaps the most interesting thing we’ll learn from the GDP data on Friday is how comfortable the government is with that fact. One other... 8th July 2022 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly A return to the streets, stimulus still being drip-fed Consumers have returned to the streets, with daily data showing that mobility is now largely back to normal. But it will be a while before they fully reopen their wallets. A lack of substantial policy... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Output to stagnate in 2022 despite latest bounce Our China Activity Proxy suggests that around half of the drop in output during the recent virus wave reversed in May. This recovery looks to have continued in June. But a lot of damage has already... 22nd June 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (May) The May data suggest that a post-lockdown recovery got underway across most parts of the economy last month. It is likely to have progressed further in June. But the recent resurgence in infections in... 15th June 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Ant rehabilitation or tech rectification? If the Ant IPO is back on, as some are reporting, this is less likely to signal that the regulatory crackdown is being rolled back than that regulators feel they have successfully brought the formerly... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Credit growth was stronger than expected last month. It is likely to accelerate following the clear signal in late May that policymakers want banks to step up lending. More policy easing is likely... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Consumer price inflation was unchanged last month and remains well below the government’s target of 3%, while producer price inflation dropped to its lowest in a year. As such, inflation is unlikely... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (May) Export and import y/y growth picked up last month. In volume terms, exports rebounded while imports were largely unchanged. We think outbound shipments will soften again before long amid growing... 9th June 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Show us the money The State Council has expanded on its call for policy support for the economy to be stepped up. But nothing has been done about the funding strains faced by local governments who bear much of the... 2nd June 2022 · 8 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May) The Caixin manufacturing index published today rebounded last month thanks to the easing of virus containment measures. Taken together with the official survey, they suggest that a recovery in... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (May) The official PMIs add to broader evidence that activity has started to rebound as containment measures were rolled back. That said, the recovery is likely to remain tepid amid weak external demand and... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
