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Zero COVID, zero growth

China’s economy almost certainly contracted last quarter. Perhaps the most interesting thing we’ll learn from the GDP data on Friday is how comfortable the government is with that fact. One other point to focus on in the data release is the extent of the rebound as the quarter progressed. The government is lining up financing to sustain the recovery in the second half of the year, but it doesn’t amount to the large stimulus that some were expecting.

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