FX Markets Weekly Wrap End of YCC: keep calm and "carry" on The Fed’s emphasis on data dependency amid even more evidence of resilience in the US economy pushed US Treasury yields up and the greenback higher against most major G10 currencies this week. Taken... 28th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Rate cuts, friendshoring, the carry trade and more 3rd August 2023, 2:00PM BST In the latest of our monthly EM Drop-Ins, Shilan Shah le a team of economists from across our EM and Markets services to answer client questions on what’s happening in EM macro while addressing key...
Capital Daily “Data dependence” points to a weaker euro While both the Fed and ECB appear to be nearing the end of their tightening cycles, the strength of the US economy relative to the euro-zone suggests to us the euro is likely to fall further against... 27th July 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The Mexican “super peso” looks poised for a sharp fall The Mexican peso’s relentless rise against the US dollar and most other major currencies is increasingly at odds with macroeconomic fundamentals. We think the peso is vulnerable to an abrupt fall over... 25th July 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor FX Valuations Monitor (2023 Q3) While the US dollar has fallen against most currencies since the start of the year, our estimates of the greenback’s “fair value” are broadly unchanged, leaving it only somewhat overvalued in our... 21st July 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Update The EM “carry trade” looks increasingly stretched Emerging markets (EM) currencies with high short-term yields – i.e., high “carry” – remain the strongest currencies against the US dollar this year, even if their gains over the past week have been... 14th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Labour market data send markets there and back again Signs the US labour market is beginning to loosen support our view that bond yields and equities could fall further, while the greenback could rally. 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the Brazilian real’s rally will reverse soon We expect the Brazilian real to reverse its gains against the US dollar by the end of the year as Brazil’s central bank eases policy and risk sentiment deteriorates. We are also sending this FX... 6th July 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar remains rangebound as FX market calm persists The US dollar has continued to tread water against most major currencies this week. With G10 central bankers generally sticking to their hawkish messages at the ECB’s Sintra conference and few major... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Outlook Recessions likely to drive the dollar higher While “riskier” currencies have generally had the best of it over the past couple of months, the dollar has remained rangebound and, in aggregate, is broadly unchanged on the year. With the euro-zone... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Rebellion in Russia; further weakness in the renminbi While the situation in Russia remains highly uncertain, our base case remains that the war with Ukraine will drag on for some time but continue to have a limited impact on broader financial markets... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Rising yields push dollar higher ahead of Powell comments The US dollar looks set to end the week stronger against most major currencies amid the prospect of policy rates in developed markets (DM) remaining “higher for longer”. While this week’s rise in DM... 19th May 2023 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the euro to reverse course before long We think that the tailwinds supporting the rebound in the euro against the US dollar have largely run their course, and still forecast the EUR/USD rate to return to parity as advanced economies fall... 5th May 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar struggles to gain ground amid mixed US data Another mixed set of data out of the US this week – GDP , consumption and the Employment Cost Index – generally pointed to stubbornly high price pressures and slowing growth. The dollar reversed its... 28th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily The euro’s rebound against the US dollar looks stretched to us We think the euro’s rebound over the past six months or so has largely run its course and expect the EUR/USD rate to fall back towards parity before year-end. 27th April 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We think a rebound in the US dollar is still on the cards The US dollar has weakened again over the past month or so, leaving it only somewhat higher in trade-weighted terms since the start of its rally at the start of 2022. In other words, the greenback has... 26th April 2023 · 10 mins read
