FX Markets Weekly Wrap The rally in the US dollar pauses ahead of the Fed After a series of strong weeks left it at two-decade highs, the US dollar seems set to end this week lower against most major currencies. Despite weaker-than-expected activity data out of the US, UK... 22nd July 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect “high-beta” DM currencies to fall further Despite their recent rebound, we still think that “high-beta” developed market currencies will weaken further against the US dollar for the remainder of the year. 22nd July 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think risks for the euro remain skewed to the downside Our base case is that the euro will weaken a bit further against the US dollar from here, but the balance of risks suggest to us that it could fall well below our current forecast for parity. 7th July 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We expect the US dollar to continue trending higher While the strength of the US dollar already reflects expectations that the Fed will continue its aggressive policy tightening, we think that disappointing global growth and weak risk sentiment will... 30th June 2022 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap We think the dollar rally has paused, not ended Amid mounting concerns about the global growth outlook as more central banks raised policy rates, the US dollar looks set to end the week broadly unchanged against most major currencies. Although we... 24th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Answering your questions on our market forecasts We held a Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss what the evolving outlook for monetary policy and global growth means for our markets forecasts. This Update recaps the key questions we addressed in the Drop... 24th June 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update We still think the backdrop is favourable for the US dollar Although it has fallen back a little recently, we continue to think the greenback will appreciate further against most currencies as global economic growth disappoints. Asia Drop-In (30 th June, 09:00... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The case for a weaker renminbi remains intact Although we now think policy rates in China will not be lowered further, we still expect the renminbi to weaken to 7.0/US$ this year. Markets Drop-In (22 nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets... 20th June 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Souring risk sentiment reignites the dollar rally The US dollar rose against all major currencies this week, reversing some of its fall over the past month or so. Much of this strength came late in the week as equity markets came under renewed... 10th June 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Fed’s “QT” supports our case for a stronger US dollar While we doubt it will be the main driver of the US dollar, the ongoing reduction in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet (i.e., “quantitative tightening”, or “QT”) adds to our conviction that the... 9th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think a hawkish RBA will continue to support the AUD Although we doubt it will appreciate much against the US dollar, we expect the Australian dollar to continue to hold up well relative to most other G10 currencies. 7th June 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We think the dollar rally will eventually resume While the US dollar has fallen back over the past couple of weeks after a strong run, we think that the key underlying drivers of the greenback’s appreciation this year remain in place. 27th May 2022 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Focus We expect the dollar to stay strong as the Fed tightens The trade-weighted US dollar has edged up to multi-decade highs as the Fed has started to raise its policy rate. In this Focus, we analyse past Fed tightening cycles and explain why we think the... 12th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily The US dollar, risk sentiment, and high-beta currencies Even if the current rout in the US stock market worsened and caused the Fed to reassess how much additional monetary tightening is necessary, we suspect the US dollar would stay strong amid heightened... 10th May 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The USD (and FOMC) is unlikely to change course The US dollar looks set to eke out small gains against most currencies this week as US bond yields rose further and equities whipsawed. While the net effect of the FOMC’s policy announcement and today... 6th May 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Outlook The next stage of the dollar bull market The combination of aggressive tightening from the Fed and worsening risk appetite has driven the dollar to its strongest level, in aggregate, since the early 2000s. While the greenback looks due a... 29th April 2022 · 23 mins read
