Global Markets Update How the Russia-Ukraine war is shaking up the markets outlook Amid all the volatility in global markets during the Russia-Ukraine conflict so far, we think there are several key lessons we can draw from the relative performance of bonds, equities and currencies... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The Ukraine conflict, monetary tightening, and financial markets While continued escalation of tensions in Ukraine would very probably put more pressure on “risky” assets in the near term, their fate further down the line might depend on how central banks responded... 22nd February 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think relative yields will continue to favour the US dollar While investors have now discounted a lot of policy rate hikes in the US over the next couple of years, we think they may still be underestimating how high the fed funds rate will go this tightening... 17th February 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar stays dormant amid surging short-term yields The US dollar seems set to end the week broadly unchanged against most major currencies despite a favourable shift in government bond yield differentials. While we suspect there is limited scope for a... 11th February 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Relative equity performance and the US dollar Although a major drop in US equities poses a key downside risk to our view that the US dollar will rise, we doubt the slight underperformance of US equities relative to global equities that we... 10th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect Fed tightening to push US yields and the USD higher The FOMC’s latest policy announcement reinforces our view that strong underlying inflationary pressures in the US will prompt a sustained tightening cycle, which we think will drive US Treasury yields... 27th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think the fundamental backdrop for gold remains negative Despite its surprising resilience over the past few weeks, we still think the price of gold will fall to $1,600/oz. by the end of 2022. 25th January 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Fed guidance could revive the rally in the US dollar The trade-weighted US dollar seems set to end the week a bit higher, reversing some of its recent decline. But the dollar strength has mostly been against G10 currencies; despite the fall in US... 21st January 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Outlook We expect the dollar bull market to continue Although the dollar’s rally has stalled over the past six weeks or so, and may tread water for a while longer, we think that it will ultimately appreciate a bit further this year and next. The key... 20th January 2022 · 21 mins read
Capital Daily Sustained tightening by the Fed to drive Treasury yields higher Despite its slight drop over the past few days, we still expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise further by the end of 2022. 12th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect yields to support further USD strength before long Although the recent surge in US government bond yields has made little impact on the US dollar, which has been broadly flat over the past month or so, we still think that widening yield differentials... 10th January 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Slow start to 2022 for FX markets ahead of US inflation Today’s US non-farm payrolls report had little impact on currency markets, with the dollar set to end the week broadly unchanged against most other currencies. This extends a pattern of low volatility... 7th January 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the US dollar’s prospects in 2022 Although we wouldn’t be surprised if the rally in the US dollar paused in the short term, we still expect the relative strength of the economic recovery in the US and monetary tightening there to push... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We expect the rally in the dollar to continue in 2022 While the dollar has not made much further headway this month, despite the Fed’s hawkish message at its latest policy meeting, we think the key underlying drivers of the greenback’s rally – the... 17th December 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor Dollar strength hasn’t pushed its valuation to extremes The recent rally in the US dollar has been driven by strong economic fundamentals in the US relative to other major economies and a favourable shift in yield differentials, leaving the greenback only... 17th December 2021 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Diverging monetary policies may extend the USD rally Today’s US CPI data produced a relatively limited reaction in the US dollar, which is set to end the week a bit weaker against most major currencies. Attention now turns to the 17(!) central bank... 10th December 2021 · 10 mins read
