Capital Daily We think the US dollar will strengthen again before long We don’t expect the recent weakness in the US dollar to persist. On the contrary, we think that it will strengthen against most major currencies as economic growth in the US outpaces that in the rest... 12th May 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Outlook We expect higher US yields to lead to a stronger dollar We think the greenback will strengthen a bit over the next couple of years as the economy in the US outperforms during the recovery from COVID-19 and government bond yields there generally rise faster... 12th May 2021 · 22 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Low valuations may not support LatAm equities While the valuation of the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Latin America Index is now low both by past standards and on a relative basis, we think that further gains in the index will be driven mostly by... 22nd April 2021 · 8 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Limited scope for valuations to push risky assets higher In our view, changes to the economic and policy outlook since the pandemic mean that corporate credit spreads in the US may remain lower than in their recent past for some time. Nonetheless, we see... 15th April 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Three reasons we think the euro will weaken further this year Although the euro has recovered some ground against the US dollar this month, we still expect it to weaken further against the greenback later this year. 12th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect bond yield divergence to favour the USD We expect higher government bond yields in the US than in other developed markets (DMs) to push the US dollar up, as has generally been the case since the Global Financial Crisis. 9th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Growing evidence of a sustained increase in US inflation A continuation of expansionary fiscal policy and today’s ISM figures out of the US support our view that core inflation there will exceed the Fed’s expectations over the next few years. 1st April 2021 · 6 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Toning down our optimism about EM assets & currencies We have become more pessimistic about the outlook for emerging market (EM) assets and currencies as we now expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise further over the next two years. 1st April 2021 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We forecast higher yields, a stronger $ & gains in equities We now think that 10-year government bond yields in most developed markets (DMs) will rise further. However, we think that they will climb more rapidly in the US than elsewhere in the developed world... 31st March 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update What to make of higher FX-hedged Treasury yields We think that high FX-hedged yields on 10-year US Treasuries will encourage more purchases from non-US investors and may help to limit the rise in US government bond yields even as the economy... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update We expect oil to be the key driver for the loonie Given our latest forecast for oil prices, we now expect the Canadian dollar to rise further in 2021 than we previously thought, but to drop back a bit in 2022. 25th February 2021 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We don’t think we are in for another “taper tantrum” We still expect emerging market (EM) “risky” assets and currencies to make further gains this year, despite growing concerns about another “taper tantrum”. 23rd February 2021 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect EM currency appreciation to moderate While we expect that EM currencies in general will rise further this year due to strong appetite for risk and a recovering global economy, we think several headwinds will limit their appreciation. 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
