Capital Daily We expect EM currencies to remain under pressure We doubt that today’s rebound in emerging market currencies marks the start of a renewed rally and expect them to continue to depreciate against the US dollar over the next few years. 21st July 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Investor positioning may be one factor behind the fall in yields Changes in investor positioning may help to explain some of the decline in 10-year US Treasury yields recently, as a large speculative net short position had built up in Q1. But we still think that... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Rising US Treasury yields likely to drive DM bond yields higher We continue to expect that a continued global economic recovery and high US inflation will cause US Treasury yields to rise and push long-term government bond yields in most other developed markets. 14th July 2021 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Growth concerns buoy the dollar despite falling US yields Although it has fallen back a bit today after China delivered a surprise cut to banks’ reserve requirements, the US dollar has otherwise continued to appreciate against most currencies. The dollar’s... 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of the mixed signals behind US dollar strength The US dollar has strengthened against most currencies, despite the fall in the yield of 10-year US Treasuries. We think that the greenback will appreciate further, aided by a rise in long-term... 1st July 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US ISM and payrolls could add fuel to the dollar rally The US dollar seems set to end the week slightly weaker, but has held much of its gains following last Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. With increasing focus on the prospects for monetary tightening... 25th June 2021 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We think the rally in the US dollar has further to run The sharp rise in the US dollar following last week’s FOMC meeting reinforces our view that the greenback will appreciate further against most currencies this year. 24th June 2021 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Update We think that the yen will weaken further before long We expect the yen will continue to depreciate against the US dollar this year as 10-year US Treasury yields resume their rise. 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the FX market reaction to the FOMC The reaction to this week’s FOMC meeting supports our view that the US dollar will strengthen against most currencies this year. 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap All eyes on Wednesday’s FOMC announcement Although Treasury yields somewhat surprisingly fell after the larger-than-expected rise in last month’s inflation in the US, the dollar is ending the week slightly stronger against most currencies... 11th June 2021 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Focus Why we expect the US dollar to reverse course Having fallen back to near its post-pandemic lows, we don’t think that the decline in the US dollar will continue. In this Focus, we explain why instead we expect the dollar to strengthen against most... 11th June 2021 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect rising inflation to lead to EM currency strength Despite rising inflation, we continue to think that most emerging market (EM) central banks will tighten policy more slowly than investors currently expect. 9th June 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Payrolls take centre stage again While strong data in the US have provided some support for the dollar, it remains broadly flat on the week. With economic recoveries well underway in most developed markets, focus remains on what the... 28th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think the euro’s recent strength will prove to be transitory While recent strong data confirm that the economic recovery in the eurozone is underway, we continue to think the euro will weaken against the US dollar this year. 25th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect recent strength in the South African rand to reverse Despite its recent appreciation against the US dollar, we expect the South African rand – like most emerging market (EM) currencies – to end this year weaker against the greenback. 20th May 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Currency markets weighing the prospects for recovery The unexpected jump in US inflation data pushed the greenback higher against most currencies this week and may a harbinger of things to come – we continue to expect the dollar to appreciate this year... 14th May 2021 · 7 mins read
