Capital Daily We still think US Treasury yields will fall back eventually Although core inflationary pressures in the US seem more persistent than we and most others had anticipated, we still think Treasury yields are near their peak and will fall in time. 13th October 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Resilient US economic data leave the dollar rally intact The dollar looks set to end the week on the front foot, having rallied over the past three days after a weak spell following the BoE’s intervention in the Gilt market last Wednesday. The key driver... 7th October 2022 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We don’t think the US dollar has peaked yet While the dollar has dropped back sharply over the past week, we continue to think that its rally has further to run as the global economy slows further and safe-have demand intensifies. 4th October 2022 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Renewed expectations for a hawkish Fed reignite USD rally The US dollar has added to its post-CPI surge, leaving it stronger this week against all major currencies on the back of expectations for even tighter Fed policy and weaker appetite for risk. Although... 16th September 2022 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily We continue to think sterling will fall along with Gilt yields Although we doubt the latest CPI data out of the UK will prevent the BoE from tightening policy over the next few quarters, we continue to expect Gilt yields to fall back and sterling to grind lower... 14th September 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the yen to reverse course before long We think the yen will strengthen against the US dollar over the next few years, as the headwinds that have driven the currency to multi-decade lows begin to unwind. 13th September 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The greenback edges lower ahead of US CPI data Today’s sell-off in the US dollar has left it little changed against most major currencies since last Friday. The catalysts for today’s decline, from fresh multi-decades highs, seem to be the ongoing... 9th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Ongoing energy supply concerns could weigh on the euro further The indefinite closure of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline strengthens the “stagflationary” headwinds facing euro-zone economies and reinforces our view that the euro is likely to fall further against the... 5th September 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Hawkish Powell pushes the US dollar towards fresh highs Th US dollar seems set to end the week a bit higher against most major currencies after Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole reinforced the FOMC’s recent pushback against an early “pivot” sent... 26th August 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect real yields to remain a drag on European currencies A shift in implied real yield gaps between the US and some other developed markets (DMs) have underpinned the latest rise in the greenback. We think the ongoing energy crisis in Europe means that... 25th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt short-term yield gaps will weigh on the US dollar Even if short-term nominal yield gaps continue to shift against the US dollar, we don’t expect its rally to abate yet. 18th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics We doubt the Canadian dollar’s resilience will last much longer The Canadian dollar has held up relatively well against the US dollar so far in 2022, but we think the factors underpinning the loonie’s resilience will fade and push it lower against the greenback... 11th August 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rallies as hope for a Fed pivot proves short-lived The huge upside surprise in US payrolls data pushed the greenback higher against most major currencies today in an otherwise quiet week for FX markets. The continued strength of the labour market in... 5th August 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Outlook We think the dollar rally still has further to run We think the dollar will appreciate further through at least the end of the year as the global economy continues to falter and “safe-haven” demand remains strong. Although we see limited scope for a... 4th August 2022 · 22 mins read
Capital Daily We expect real yields to be a near-term headwind for gold We think that real yields in the US will continue to rise and put renewed pressure on the price of gold and most other assets. 3rd August 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor Overvaluation may limit further strength in the USD We estimate that, in aggregate, the US dollar has become more overvalued over the past few months. In our view, this is because fundamentals in the US relative to other major economies have not... 29th July 2022 · 14 mins read
