Capital Daily The “carry trade” in currencies may have run its course “High-carry” emerging market (EM) currencies have not been immune to broad-based dollar strength so far this year, and we think they have further to fall. 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Inflation rebound risk, bank real estate exposure, Trump trade wars and dollar and EM outlooks 9th February 2024 Listen Now
FX Markets Update What the “dollar smile” means in the Fed’s “last mile” While not our base case, continued strength in the US economy would probably be a tailwind for the US dollar over the coming months. But even in that event, we think the dollar would eventually weaken... 7th February 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Can “King Dollar” draw investors’ gaze from “Goldilocks”? The DXY index seems set to close this week at its strongest level in almost two months, breaking out of a narrow range amid a flurry of data releases out of the US. Consistent with Fed Chair Powell’s... 2nd February 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) After its sharp fall at the end of 2023, the US dollar has risen against most major currencies so far this year. Interest rate expectations have rebounded a bit in the US and in most places outside... 30th January 2024 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally takes a breather ahead of Fed and key US data The US dollar seems set to remain within a tight range against most major currencies this week. At face value, the stronger-than-expected GDP data out of the US might point to a return to “higher for... 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Focus Would a US equity bubble coincide with a stronger dollar (again)? We think the current backdrop is not as favourable for the greenback as the one that prevailed during the dot com era, so we doubt the bubble in US equities we expect would be accompanied by renewed... 25th January 2024 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar grinds higher alongside rising equities and UST yields The US dollar’s rebound has gained momentum this week amid hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials and more evidence out of the US – notably retail sales and jobless claims – of continued resilience in... 19th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Rebound in Gilt yields and sterling may not last Although Gilt yields remain elevated and sterling resilient, we expect both to fall over the course of 2024 as disinflationary pressures build in the UK. 18th January 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We think sterling has further to fall against the US dollar While sterling has outperformed other G10 currencies amid the dollar sell-off over the past couple of months, we expect it to reverse its gains against the greenback as short-term Gilt yields edge... 16th January 2024 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The stalemate in currency markets continues After a strong start to the year, the US dollar seems set to end the week broadly unchanged against most currencies, as inflation data releases out of the US this week failed to generate much of a... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Weakness in US asset prices unlikely to persist We wouldn’t be surprised if US bonds and equities fell a bit further in the near term. But, in our view, the Fed remains on track to start easing in March, pointing to renewed gains in US asset prices... 11th January 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of valuations in currency markets While we estimate the US dollar remains only somewhat above “fair value”, the valuations of some other major currencies are at extreme levels. For these currencies – notably the Mexican peso and Czech... 4th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Mexico – Will nearshoring live up to the hype? 25th January 2024, 3:00PM GMT Mexico has become an investor darling, with investment surging, GDP growth beating expectations and the currency climbing to multi-year highs. This turnaround in the economy’s fortunes has been…
Event EM Drop-In: Is Turkey’s policy shift the real deal? 9th January 2024, 3:00PM GMT The Erdogan government’s turn back to macroeconomic orthodoxy is showing early positive signs: inflation pressures have eased; the current account deficit has narrowed; and foreign investment has...
FX Markets Update Five key questions for currency markets in 2024 As the year draws to a close, this Update sets out our answers to five of the most commonly asked questions about currency markets for the coming year. In short, we expect another year of muddling... 20th December 2023 · 5 mins read
