FX Markets Valuations Monitor FX Valuations Monitor (Q4 2023) The US dollar has risen against most currencies since the start of the year, while most of our estimates of the greenback’s “fair value” are little unchanged. Taken together, this leaves the dollar... 12th October 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally at risk of reversal as tailwinds fade The week is set to end with the US dollar a bit higher against most currencies and the DXY Index just below fresh year-to-date highs. The dollar’s latest gains coincide with yet another week of rising... 29th September 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Outlook Dollar’s “stronger for longer” rally may run out of road The US dollar’s record run of 10 consecutive weekly gains has brought it to its strongest level since last December, and prompted renewed talk of FX intervention in Asia. We think that market... 28th September 2023 · 23 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The rally in the US dollar appears to be losing steam Amid the flurry of central bank announcements, the Fed doubling down on “higher for longer” proved to be enough for the greenback to eke out small gains against most other currencies, taking the DXY... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update We think high carry currencies will reverse course Although high “carry” emerging market (EM) currencies have held on to most of their gains during the greenback’s recent rally, we still think the outperformance of these currencies is likely to... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The greenback grinds higher and “carry” currencies crack The US dollar looks set to end the week higher against nearly all other major currencies. Remarkably, the DXY Index is set for an eight consecutive weekly rise, something that has rarely occurred... 8th September 2023 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Rate cuts by the BoC may push the loonie lower Although the Canadian dollar has held up relatively well among G10 currencies, we think it will weaken in the coming quarters as investors discount a more dovish policy path for the Bank of Canada. In... 7th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Weighing up the prospects for DM bond yields The worsening economic growth backdrop suggests to us that interest rate expectations for cyclically sensitive developed market (DM) economies are too high. We expect them to fall and drag bond yields... 6th September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our FX Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The dollar has rebounded in August but remains broadly unchanged on the year so far. We... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Greenback gains as surveys sink and Powell persists PMI and other data released this week have added to evidence of the relative strength of the US economy amid a weakening global backdrop, shifting yield gaps in favour of the greenback and pushing it... 25th August 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update We still expect Gilt yields and sterling to fall Gilt yields and sterling have fallen from their cycle highs over the past month or so, and we think the worsening economic growth outlook in the UK and elsewhere mean that this trend will continue... 24th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Downturns to push the euro and sterling down further The weaker-than-expected PMI data from European economies is consistent with our view that the euro and sterling will fall further against the dollar over the next couple of months. 23rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We think CEE currencies are likely to reverse their gains Exceptionally high inflation in the major economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) relative to elsewhere has left their currencies overvalued against the US dollar and on a trade-weighted basis... 16th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think oil’s muted impact on markets will continue Despite oil prices hitting new year-to-date highs, other factors seem to be dominating the effect of rising oil prices on equity, bond, and FX markets. Even if, as we expect, oil prices edge lower... 9th August 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update What the end of tightening cycles means for the US dollar As major central banks near the end of their tightening cycles, the latest evidence of US economic resilience suggests to us that the dollar is poised to appreciate over the next couple of quarters. 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) The dollar remains broadly unchanged on the year so far, but we continue to think that it (and the yen) will rally over the second half of the year as the long-anticipated recessions finally takes... 31st July 2023 · 0 mins read
