India Economics Weekly 1,425,775,850 and counting According to UN projections, India will today replace China as home to the world’s largest population. The key to unlocking this immense demographic potential is to develop the manufacturing sector... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly New FTP will fall short of lofty ambitions The government's new Foreign Trade Policy is underpinned by ambitions to boost exports to US$2trn by FY29/30 and increase the use of the rupee settlement mechanism, both of which are tough tasks... 6th April 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities likely to ease The widening in India’s current account deficit last year, to 2.4% of GDP, was not as significant as many had feared in the context of the surge in commodity prices. Looking ahead, we think the... 4th April 2023 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI reading edged up in March and points to healthy growth in the sector. This should provide some added source of comfort to the RBI to hike rates again this Thursday. But the... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs weather the global banking storm Spill-overs to EMs from the turmoil in the global banking system have been limited. There don’t appear to be signs of strain in EM banks themselves, outflows of capital have been small and, in general... 29th March 2023 · 9 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: What does the recent banking sector turmoil mean for Asia? 30th March 2023, 9:00AM BST Although the recent flare-up of financial stability concerns has been a US-Europe story, its reverberations could be global. Economists from across our Asia coverage held a special online briefing...
India Chart Pack Vulnerabilities lurk in the banking sector Spill-overs from the turmoil in the global banking system to India have been limited so far, but the big unknown is whether difficulties will flare up at home. Bank problems can arise via multiple... 22nd March 2023 · 9 mins read
India Economic Outlook Near-term softness, long-term optimism The RBI’s tightening cycle is in its final throes and, as the economy softens and inflation drops back to within the central bank’s 2-6% target range, we think rates cuts will materialise in early... 20th March 2023 · 20 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) Growth in industrial production picked up in January, supporting our view that Q4 will have marked the trough for q/q growth. Nevertheless, the outlook for the industrial sector over the coming months... 10th March 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Coal shortages remain a key downside risk Efforts to improve the stability of coal supply have had some success over the past 18 months but shortages remain a key downside risk to the economic outlook. The upcoming summer months could be a... 10th March 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly MPC fault lines, shifting consensus, GDP data With the MPC minutes from this month's RBI meeting underlining that the hawks remain in the ascendancy, the temptation is to forecast further monetary tightening. Indeed, the consensus has shifted... 24th February 2023 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Adani spill-over risks: not out of the woods yet In a crowded field given the FY23/24 Union Budget and the RBI’s more-hawkish-than-expected policy announcement, the Adani short-selling crisis has been the main story over the past month. So far at... 21st February 2023 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Adani spill-over risks, RBI cautious on inflation Contagion risks from the Adani saga look contained for now; foreign equity outflows have been small and there has been no widening in corporate bond spreads. However, we don't share the RBI's optimism... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) India’s manufacturing PMI showed signs of moderation in January after defying gravity for several months previously. It should drop further over the coming months as the economy comes off the boil. 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Global fracturing: India tilts further away from China India has historically remained unaligned geopolitically but we made the case last year that, in a fracturing global economy, it was more likely to lean towards a US-led bloc and away from a China-led... 18th January 2023 · 9 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) The drop in Indian wholesale price inflation for the sixth month in a row in December further reinforces our view that the MPC will draw the tightening cycle to a close after one more rate hike in its... 16th January 2023 · 2 mins read
