India Economic Outlook Rate cuts will soon come onto the agenda The RBI’s tightening cycle has come to an end and, as the economy comes off the boil and inflation settles at comfortable rates, we think interest rates cuts will materialise in early 2024. Over the... 12th June 2023 · 20 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI stands pat, MSP hikes, India-US defence ties The RBI didn’t throw up any surprises this week when it kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% and maintained a hawkish tone. But recent developments related to minimum support prices and monsoon rains... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Resilient economy does not make case for tightening The strength of the recent activity data means we are revising up our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 6.3%, from 6.0%. But given that inflation has come down a long way from its peak last year and is now... 2nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) India’s manufacturing PMI reading rose in May to a 31-month high and points to very healthy growth in the sector. But the survey also shows that price pressures are well past the peak, supporting our... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Demonetisation redux? The RBI's announcement that it is withdrawing the INR2,000 note is likely to have evoked memories of the shock demonetisation exercise in 2016. But the economic impact should be much more limited this... 26th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: The case for EM equity outperformance 1st June 2023, 3:00PM BST During our latest monthly dive into the big themes in emerging markets, the team discussed the macro and market forces that could see EM equities breaking their recent run of underperformance against…
India Chart Pack Policymakers can breathe easier on inflation The past month has brought some encouraging news on the inflation front. Consumer price inflation dropped sharply in April to an 18-month low, keeping the headline rate comfortably within the RBI’s 2... 22nd May 2023 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Karnataka election, trade data, banking risks The loss for PM Modi’s BJP in the state election in Karnataka may persuade the ruling national party to slow the pace of labour reforms and other politically contentious measures elsewhere as next... 19th May 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Services exports supporting external position The recent strength of services exports has helped to offset much of the impact of the drop in goods exports and – along with a pull-back in import values – is another reason to think that the current... 15th May 2023 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) The drop in Indian wholesale price inflation in April, to a 33-month low, further reinforces our view that the central bank’s tightening cycle has come to an end. 15th May 2023 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) The sharp drop in headline consumer price inflation in April, to an 18-month low, supports our view that the central bank’s tightening cycle has come to an end. 12th May 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Why the Karnataka election matters for investors The state election in Karnataka was held this week, with results due on Saturday. The state has been on the forefront of the labour reform agenda. But a loss for the incumbent BJP as suggested by exit... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Strength of PMIs unlikely to support another rate hike The PMI surveys for April released this week suggest that India’s economy started Q2 on a strong footing. But they are at odds with several other indicators that point to an unspectacular near-term... 5th May 2023 · 5 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Apr.) India’s manufacturing and services PMI readings rose in April but are at odds with the hard activity data that point to more subdued domestic and external demand. 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Mar.) Growth in India’s core infrastructure industries slowed in March, indicating that some of the resilience in the industrial sector at the start of the year may be fading. Domestic and external... 28th April 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI will continue providing support to rupee The rupee has held up well so far this year and, while we think renewed weakening is likely over the coming months as the US dollar rebounds, the recent improvement in the external position, ample FX... 28th April 2023 · 4 mins read
