India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) Headline consumer price inflation dropped back sharply to within the RBI’s 2-6% target range in September. But the central bank is unlikely to shift away from its hawkish rhetoric for as long as there... 12th October 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee weakness not a major macro concern The rupee has been hovering close to record lows this week amid the sell-off in global bond markets. But the good news is that the macroeconomic impact of a weakening rupee is limited. Meanwhile, the... 6th October 2023 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) India’s manufacturing PMI moderated in September but remained high. However, there are reasons to think a further slight cooling in manufacturing activity lies in store over the coming months. 3rd October 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Coal India strike raises risk of power outages Next week's three-day strike by workers at Coal India in dispute over wages raises the risk of power outages across the country, given that coal stocks are already at their lowest level this year... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read
RBI Watch Late to the EM rate-cutting party We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Friday 6 th October. Further ahead, our view is that the RBI will begin loosening... 29th September 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Oil price rise not a major threat to external position The narrowing in India’s current account deficit in the four quarters to Q2 was mainly due to the shrinking of the goods trade deficit. Looking ahead, the recent jump in oil prices won’t prevent the... 28th September 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bond index inclusion to boost pride more than inflows On its own, the inclusion of India’s government bonds into JP Morgan's GBI-EM Global Diversified Index is unlikely to make a great deal of difference to local yields. But the outlook for domestic and... 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 20th September 2023 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Food price inflation the key threat to policy outlook India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However, a surge in food prices has pushed headline CPI inflation well beyond the upper limit of the RBI’s 2... 13th September 2023 · 19 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) The drop in headline consumer price inflation in August should provide some welcome relief for the RBI. But while we expect inflation to grind lower over the coming months, a severe El Niño and... 12th September 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Food inflation threat is far from over We think vegetable price inflation will have remained elevated last month despite a moderation in prices over the past couple of weeks. What’s more, India recorded the driest August in more than a... 1st September 2023 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response GDP (Q2) The GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY23/24) confirm a resilient first half of the year for India’s economy in the face of the RBI’s policy tightening. More timely data point to a slight cooling in growth but... 31st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Latest on China, the BOJ policy outlook, Indian inflation and more 31st August 2023, 9:00AM BST This month’s briefing on the big regional macro and market stories includes the latest on China’s struggling economy, the next steps from the Bank of Japan as inflation becomes more widespread, and...
India Economics Focus Mapping India’s energy demand and emissions The government’s ambition of developing a globally-competitive manufacturing sector, combined with relatively slow progress on shifting away from using coal for electricity production, means India... 23rd August 2023 · 12 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee hits an all-time low, new inflation forecasts The rupee dropped to an all-time low of 83.1/$ on Thursday and the depreciation this week may have been larger had the RBI not stepped up its FX intervention. The good news is that the central bank is... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 17th August 2023 · 1 min read
